This week’s American presidential election contained many surprises. Perhaps chief among them was the level of support Donald Trump received from non-white voters, particularly blacks and Hispanics. According to exit polls, Trump managed to win the support of 46 percent of Hispanic voters (up 32 percent from 2020). It was the highest Hispanic voter share a Republican presidential candidate received in exit polls since the 1970s. This result has served to remake expectations around who actually makes up the Republican Party’s typical base.
Last year on Hub Dialogues, editor-at-large Sean Speer interviewed Patrick Ruffini, founder of Echelon Insights and leading Republican pollster and political strategist, about his new book, Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP, which told the story of how the Republican Party has slowly managed to make inroads into these communities.
Here are five key takeaways from their discussion, which predicted this week’s presidential election result.
1. A rightward shift in working-class voting patterns
Patrick Ruffini highlights a fundamental, long-term shift in the American working class’ political alignment, which he argues began to emerge in the 1960s and has culminated in a solid base of working-class support for the Republican Party.
This shift started around the Vietnam War when President Nixon’s appeal to the “silent majority” tapped into the concerns of blue-collar workers who felt alienated by the cultural changes championed by progressives. Ruffini points to key historical moments, such as the 1968 and 1972 elections, which showcased a divide between wealthy, cosmopolitan areas and working-class neighbourhoods.
This trend intensified in the early 2000s, with George W. Bush’s appeal to non-college-educated whites. It exploded with Trump’s campaign in 2016. Ruffini explains that Trump’s rhetoric and cultural positioning accelerated the alignment, as he resonated with a demographic already drifting away from the Democratic Party.
According to Ruffini, this ongoing shift reflects a changing American political landscape, where working-class voters increasingly see Republicans, rather than Democrats, as the party aligned with their values.
2. Push-pull dynamics of political realignment
Ruffini describes the realignment of working-class voters as a dynamic process of both attraction and repulsion, whereby Republicans attract these voters, while progressive agendas and attitudes drive them away.
He emphasizes that this shift is not solely due to Republicans “pulling” the working class into their fold but also a result of progressive policies and cultural stances that alienate certain voters. Key moments, such as the 1970s’ hard-hat protests and anti-war demonstrations, showcased the disconnect between working-class values and progressive causes, reinforcing a sense of “us versus them.”
Trump supporters outside of the Chicago Hilton, July 31, 2024, in Chicago. Matt Marton/AP Photo.
Ruffini explains that similar divides resurfaced in 2016, where Trump’s populist message clashed with the Democrats’ approach to cultural and social issues, making his campaign a natural fit for many voters feeling excluded by the Left. This “push-pull” mechanism continues today, suggesting that working-class political realignment is less about ideology and more about a cultural and value-based re-alignment, with many working-class voters feeling that the Republican Party better reflects their views on tradition and nationalism.
3. Internal GOP tensions over the policy realignment
Ruffini discusses a growing tension within the GOP between traditional conservative policies and emerging working-class priorities. While some organizations, like American Compass under Oren Cass, advocate for a more populist economic policy that appeals to the working class by rethinking free trade and globalization, they face resistance from conservative elites and think tanks that remain loyal to free-market orthodoxy.
Ruffini explains that, although voters are not as ideologically wedded to economic principles as policymakers might believe, the GOP’s longstanding emphasis on free trade and limited government intervention still holds sway in elite circles. This ideological divide reveals how Republican leadership may struggle to fully integrate policies that resonate with their new voter base without alienating traditional conservative constituents.
For Ruffini, this conflict highlights a broader question: how willing are Republicans to redefine their central economic stance in response to the demographic shifts within their coalition? He suggests that policy evolution within the GOP may lag behind voter priorities, creating challenges in building a cohesive agenda.
4. Republican gains in minority communities, despite racial tensions
Despite accusations of racism, Republicans are making significant gains with minority voters, particularly among working-class black and Hispanic communities. Ruffini attributes this trend to the GOP’s cultural messaging, which appeals to socially conservative values often shared across racial lines.
He argues that traditional assumptions about voting patterns, especially among black and Hispanic voters, are shifting as these groups become less uniformly Democratic. Instead, he notes that issues around economic opportunity, educational policy, and social values increasingly resonate with these communities, which face similar struggles as working-class white voters.
By connecting on shared concerns, the GOP has managed to reach beyond racial divisions, finding common ground with minority voters who feel overlooked by progressive policies. Ruffini stresses that this shift isn’t about converting these demographics entirely, but instead moving the needle—often from 10 percent support to 15 percent or higher, which can be enough to impact close elections significantly. This development signals a gradual breakdown of traditional racial voting patterns in America and the potential for Republicans to continue diversifying their coalition.
5. The challenge of bringing Muslim voters into the coalition
Recent political developments underscore the complexity of incorporating Muslim voters into the GOP, despite shared concerns over education and parental rights. Ruffini notes that issues like educational curriculums—specifically around family values—have provided a bridge between conservative values and the interests of many Muslim communities.
However, international wars and crises, especially those in the Middle East, complicate this potential alliance. Following Hamas’ attacks against Israel, support for Israel by many Western governments has clashed with sentiments in Muslim communities, exposing a potential fault line within the GOP’s coalition-building strategy.
Ruffini observes that this is particularly visible in swing states like Michigan, where Arab-American voters have shown increasing support for Trump in reaction to Biden’s stance on Israel. However, this shift reflects discontent with the Democratic Party more than a natural alignment with Republican values. Ruffini highlights this challenge as emblematic of the GOP’s delicate balancing act: maintaining loyalty to a pro-Israel stance, while cautiously appealing to Muslim voters. The situation exemplifies how global events can disrupt domestic political dynamics, raising questions about the sustainability of these emerging alliances.
This episode was originally published on November 23, 2023. You can listen to the full episode here.
ChatGPT assisted in the creation of this article.
