The Week in Polling: Liberals and NDP tied for first time since 2015, Canadians twice as likely to feel worse off financially than better, and most Ukrainians want the war to end as soon as possible

This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.

The Liberals and NDP are tied for the first time in nearly a decade

The Liberals have missed out on a “Trump bump” as—for the first time in Abacus Data’s polling since they were elected in 2015—the federal Liberals and NDP are tied for second place at 21 percent, both behind the Conservatives at 43 percent.

Outside of voters from Quebec, the NDP are ahead of the Liberals by two percent, at 23 and 21 percent respectively. The Conservatives also jump to 48 percent.

Only 15 percent of committed millennial voters say they will vote for the Liberals, which is Abacus Data’s lowest measurement of Liberal support among that generation to date.

Fifty-four percent of Canadians anticipate that the Conservatives will win the next election. Since January 2024, expectations of a Conservative victory have risen by 11 percent. Just over 15 percent of Canadians expect a Liberal victory.