Power play: Doug Ford’s electricity shut down threat could leave 1.3 million U.S. homes in the dark

Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s retaliatory threat to pull the plug on Ontario electricity exports to the U.S. could turn the lights off for at least 1.29 million Americans and seriously cost U.S. industry.

Earlier this month, Ford threatened to cut off his province’s electricity exports to the states of New York, Michigan, and Minnesota. His proposed plan was a response to U.S. President-elect Trump’s threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on all Canadian goods when he enters the White House next month.

“We’re sending a message to the U.S. [that if] you come and attack Ontario, you attack livelihoods of people in Ontario and Canadians,” announced Ford. “We are going to use every tool in our toolbox to defend Ontarians and Canadians. Let’s hope it never comes to that.” The Progressive Conservative leader added that the move would be a “last resort.”

Trump brushed off Ford’s threat. “That’s okay if [Ford] does that. That’s fine,” the U.S. president-elect told the American network CNBC. “The United States is subsidizing Canada and we shouldn’t have to do that.”

Data analyzed by The Hub from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Energy Information Administration demonstrates America’s significant reliance on Canadian electricity, much of it coming from Ontario. These big import numbers add weight to what may become a key part of future trade negotiations.

Last year, Canada delivered a total of 49.4 million megawatt hours (MWh) of electricity to the United States. This included generated combustion, nuclear, hydro, tidal, wind, solar, wave, geothermal, and other non-combustible power.

Given that in 2022 the average U.S. household consumed 10.79 MWh annually according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, last year, the total electricity delivered from Canada could have powered 4.5 million U.S. homes.

When comparing the provinces, Ontario electricity had the potential to power the most U.S. homes, some 1.29 million, having delivered 13.8 MWh last year.

Quebec is a close second, last year delivering enough to power 1.23 million U.S. homes, or 13.3 million MWh. The four provinces west of Ontario, combined, delivered 15 million MWh.

Interestingly, in the last decade, Canadian electricity bound for the U.S. actually declined in each province. In 2016, Canada delivered the most electricity to the U.S. in the past decade, 73 million MWh, compared to delivering 49.4 million MWh in 2023.

Last year Canada received 21.7 million MWh of electricity from the U.S., the most it’s received in a decade. The majority, 16.8 MWh, went to British Columbia, followed by 1.9 million to Manitoba and 1.2 million to Quebec.

In British Columbia, the provincially owned BC Hydro will often import renewable electricity from U.S. states such as California, when it is cheaper than generating it domestically using hydroelectric power.

Canada’s contribution to other segments of U.S. energy nevertheless remains substantial. From 2014 to 2023, Canadian crude oil exports as a share of U.S. total crude oil imports rose from 36 percent to 50 percent.

This is as the U.S. imports from the rest of the world have decreased substantially, including from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which has historically dictated global oil prices. The U.S. has rapidly increased its domestic oil production through fracking.

In the past decade, Mexican crude oil imports, meanwhile, have sat between 6 and 10 percent of U.S. total crude oil imports.

Even with Canada being a major provider of oil to its neighbour to the south, Trump says he doesn’t plan to exempt his country’s Canadian oil imports from his proposed 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods.

Including Canadian and Mexican oil within his tariff threat has sparked rare discord between the U.S.’s top oil companies and industry groups and the Republican president-elect, according to Reuters. U.S. oil refiners rely on Canadian and Mexican products for a quarter of their production.

“Across-the-board trade policies that could inflate the cost of imports, reduce accessible supplies of oil feedstocks and products, or provoke retaliatory tariffs have potential to impact (U.S.) consumers and undercut (U.S.) advantage as the world’s leading maker of liquid fuels,” a spokesperson for the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers group told journalists.