Welcome to Need to Know, your Saturday dive into thought-provoking research from think tanks, academics, and leading policy thinkers in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what’s got us thinking this week.
The events that have played out over the last few months may leave a bitter taste in our collective mouths for what 2025 will bring. The Middle East looks like it’s on the brink of collapse. The re-election of Donald Trump is bringing about profound uncertainty for policymakers across the globe. South Korea had an attempted coup. Incumbent governments around the world had an awful year. Oh, and at the same time, the Canadian government looks like it’s about to explode.
In other words, if order and stability in domestic and international policy-making are on your New Year’s resolution list, you might as well just cross them off now.
Given the uncertainty of what’s to come, today, we bring you a few longer reads for the holiday break to help make sense of the bumpy road ahead. The long and short of it is buckle up; 2025 looks like it could be a wild ride.
Escalating wars, advancing technologies
Ian Bremmer is one of the world’s foremost geopolitics experts, leading the Eurasia Group consulting firm. He is someone worth listening to when trying to figure out where the world is headed.
In his 2024 State of the World address, Bremmer presented a sobering yet balanced assessment of global dynamics, emphasizing a world marked by intensifying geopolitical conflicts and transformative technological advancements. Speaking in Tokyo on October 23, Bremmer identified the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and deteriorating U.S.-China relations as pivotal crises shaping the global landscape. He warned that these tensions, compounded by nuclear proliferation risks, are pushing the world toward the brink.
Bremmer highlighted Putin’s potential use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, North Korea’s military support of Russia, and Iran’s growing nuclear ambitions amid Middle East turmoil. These developments, he argued, could encourage countries like Japan and South Korea to reconsider their non-nuclear stances, further threatening regional and global stability.
Despite these pressing concerns, Bremmer pointed to opportunities driven by technological advancements. He described a global landscape where the middle class continues to expand, propelled by digital connectivity. While the U.S. leads in artificial intelligence innovation, China is dominating in renewable energy technologies, including electric vehicles and solar power. This competition, he noted, is compelling other nations to engage strategically with both powers simultaneously, maintaining an international balance that prevents complete geopolitical decoupling.
Bremmer underscored the paradox of a world teetering between escalating conflicts and extraordinary technological progress. He urged global leaders to navigate these dual realities by addressing instability while harnessing the transformative potential of innovation, offering a cautious but optimistic path forward.
Human freedom is in decline
In the introduction to Capitalism and Freedom, Milton Friedman reminds us that, “Freedom is a rare and delicate plant. Our minds tell us, and history confirms, that the great threat to freedom is the concentration of power.” Yet, the concentration of economic and political power within countries has risen in recent years.
A case in point is the recent findings from the 2024 Human Freedom Index, published by the Cato Institute and Fraser Institute. The index delivers a comprehensive analysis of global human freedoms across 165 jurisdictions based on the combination of data from personal, civil, and economic indicators from 2000 to 2022.
This year’s report reveals a troubling trajectory for human freedom.
