On Saturday, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre held his much-anticipated “Canada First” rally in Ottawa.
The rally came amid a shifting political landscape driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats—which not only resulted in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau choosing not to seek re-election, but also in Poilievre’s previous 30-point lead over the Liberals falling, with some polls suggesting Liberal leadership race front-runner Mark Carney could even win in the next election.
Amidst this context, political analysts, including The Hub’s editor-at-large Sean Speer, argued the speech would be one of Poilievre’s most important.
The legacy media meanwhile insisted he would need to pivot away from his signature campaign themes of axing the carbon tax and towards a new message centered on Trump’s tariffs.
But that’s not what Poilievre did.
The pivot that wasn’t
The Conservative leader called Trump’s tariff threat unjustified, laid out a compelling case directly to Americans about why a Canada-U.S. trade war should be avoided, and strongly rejected Trump’s suggestion that Canada should become part of the U.S.
“We will never be the 51st state. We will bear any burden and pay any price to protect the sovereignty and independence of our country,” he said.
But he then used the new economic and political reality to do the following:
- Blame the governing Liberals for allowing Canada to become as vulnerable as it is.
- Double down on his existing agenda.
- Announce new patriotic initiatives for a strong and independent “post-woke” Canada.
Blaming the governing Liberals for Canada’s economic vulnerabilities
Prior to the rally, Poilievre struggled to stand out on tariffs, because he, Trudeau, and Liberal leadership hopefuls Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland hold the same position—dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs.
A Nanos Poll meanwhile showed Canadians believe Carney—an experienced central banker—is better equipped to manage the trade situation with the U.S.
The Conservative leader needed to find a way to leverage the tariff situation to his advantage, without alienating the 44 percent of his base who support Trump and swing voters who aren’t fond of the U.S. president.
So he chose to frame the situation as the Liberals’ fault while warning that returning them to power would just make things worse.
“These threats are a wake-up call. We should be the wealthiest and most self-reliant economy in the world today,” Poilievre said, before going after the Liberals for having, as he said, doubled Canada’s debt, housing costs, food bank lineups; blocked Canadian energy in favour of foreign oil, raised taxes, and driven half-trillion dollars of investment out of Canada to the U.S.
“All of this before a single tariff was applied!” Poilievre said.
“If Carney-Trudeau policies caused this much economic harm before the tariffs, imagine the devastation they would cause after tariffs,” he added.
While the Liberals have sought to place responsibility for potential economic harm on Trump, Poilievre does not want Canadians to forget that it was they who were in power for the past 10 years and should have proactively prepared for tariffs. But they didn’t and instead were complacent with policies that could maximize harm.
Doubling down on his existing agenda
Pollsters have argued that the central ballot battles Poilievre had been championing for years were now rendered irrelevant because of tariffs.
Nanos Research Chairman Nik Nanos told The Hill Times the carbon tax is “yesterday’s issue.”
This was only exacerbated by the fact that Carney and Freeland have distanced themselves from unpopular Trudeau policies like the carbon tax and the capital gains tax hike and now appear to support building pipelines.
But a defiant Poilievre showcased that the situation is instead cause to double down on his existing policy agenda, seeking to reinstate “the Canadian promise” while targeting Liberal hypocrisy.
“The media is now saying that I should change my entire platform because of this tariff threat. In fact, the Trump tariff threats have proven Conservatives right on everything,” Poilievre said.
He noted that before the threat of tariffs, Canada was set to have a “carbon tax election.” But now, he said the carbon tax is going to be an even bigger issue.
“Combining Trump’s tariffs with Carney’s carbon tax will decimate our industries and destroy the jobs of our workers,” Poilievre told the crowd.
Polls show a plurality of Canadians oppose a consumer carbon tax and oppose the capital gains tax hike, and that a majority support building pipelines
Recent history also shows incumbent flip-flopping isn’t a guaranteed path to success.
Kamala Harris distanced herself from several of Biden’s unpopular policies—like on immigration—to adopt policies similar to Trump’s more popular ones. But American voters saw through the shift and handed her party its worst electoral college defeat since 1988.
“If you want Conservative policies, you’ll have to vote Conservative,” Poilievre said.
New patriotic initiatives for a strong and independent “post-woke” Canada.
Poilievre also sought to respond to Trump’s threats by showcasing a series of policies—including measures that capitalized on a new wave of patriotism that has swept across Canada.
Poilievre also pledged to take Canada out of the “woke” era by rebuilding statues of Sir John A. Macdonald and re-instating historical figures and events like Terry Fox, Vimy Ridge, the Famous Five, the Bluenose, the Fathers of Confederation, Indigenous Peoples, and our military heroes on the Canadian passport.
He promised to strengthen citizenship by requiring new Canadians to “pledge gratitude to those who worked, sacrificed, and gave their lives to defend the freedom [they] now enjoy and to build the country of Canada,” end foreign conflicts on Canada’s streets, and deport temporary residents who engage in radical behaviour.
This is a contrast to Carney and Freeland, who appear to have doubled down on “woke” identity politics, despite polls having shown the majority of Canadians aren’t fans.
Poilievre is not going to allow for a single-issue election
As we inch closer to the next federal race, top of mind for the Conservatives will be preventing the Liberals from turning it into a single issue Trump tariff-focused election.
“Liberals would like to instrumentalize the tariff threat to distract from the record of the Carney-Trudeau Liberals over the last nine years. They say that we should just forget about all the damage they’ve done to our country because of the tariffs that might be coming down the road.,” Poilievre said.
Conservatives want Canadians to still be asking themselves a few months from now, “Have I been satisfied with the last decade?” as well as “What do you want the next 10 years to look like?” when they enter the voting booth.
Because if those questions aren’t in the minds of voters, then there is the possibility that Canada could choose to “double down” on 10 years of Liberal rule by electing Carney and giving Conservatives their fourth consecutive loss in the process.
Élie Cantin-Nantel is The Hub’s Ottawa Correspondent. Prior to joining the team, he practiced journalism for a variety of outlets. Élie also has experience working on Parliament Hill and is completing a joint honours in communication and political science at the University of Ottawa. He is bilingual....
