Nearly four years ago, I first suggested in a column that younger Canadians could be won over by Conservatives. At the time, most people thought I was nuts. But as Pierre Poilievre took the Conservative Party of Canada under his reins, polling eventually caught up with what I’d been seeing and hearing for a while. By May 2022, Ekos showed the CPC with a stunning nine-point lead in the 18-34 demographic, despite only leading by six points overall.
From there, Millennial and Gen Z support for the Poilievre Conservatives soared to unprecedented highs. The trend entirely inverted not just the massive youth support that elected Trudeau back in 2015, but assumptions about age and conservatism across the Western world. Eventually, it became common political knowledge that younger Canadians were one of Poilievre’s most loyal demographics. Now, there are warning signs that assumption could be upended.
Recent polling by Angus Reid suggests the CPC could be at risk of reversing its progress with younger Canadians—even younger men. Net favourability scores (represented as favourable minus unfavourable) show presumed Liberal leadership frontrunner Mark Carney at +18 with men ages 18 to 34 while Poilievre clocks in at -23. For women ages 18 to 34, Carney scores at +11 while Poilievre is at -36.
Is this a polling fluke, or could Poilievre really be at risk of bleeding Millennial and Gen Z voters back to the Liberals? While Conservatives’ instincts are likely to dismiss these numbers as the former scenario and point to voter intention polls that still show the CPC ahead in this age group, they should take the latter possibility seriously and act quickly if they want to keep younger voters inside the big blue tent.
Last summer, a familiar pattern began to emerge. Just as I’d first detected young Canadians’ openness to, and eventual support for, Conservatives, I began to observe warnings of weakness. In late August, I posted on X: “A key to political analysis that’s ahead of the curve is careful listening in social settings. You have to pick up on repeat sentiments and phrases well before they become headlines or poll questions. One I’ve been increasingly hearing this summer: ‘politically homeless.’”
Just like four years ago, few people took me seriously. Many Conservatives had, in just a couple short years, gone from thinking capturing younger support was impossible to the hubristic position that their votes were practically guaranteed. Perhaps this is why, over time, younger Canadians and the issues that matter most to them appeared less and less important to Poilievre’s CPC, with the demographic seemingly left on the backburner as strategy focused elsewhere.
Poilievre first gained youth support through his economic populist messaging and focus on housing, but both these receded into the background in favour of a near-sole focus on “axe the tax”—a theme that doesn’t resonate as much with younger voters who can barely afford cars to drive, let alone larger homes to heat. The CPC strategy seemed to think “axe the tax” could be a stand-in for all cost of living issues, but rightly skeptical younger voters are all too used to politicians saying the right things about housing affordability one minute and doing little to nothing about it in practice.
