This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
Ten percent of Canadians and 21 percent of Conservatives would vote to join the U.S.
Source: Angus Reid
A recent poll from Angus Reid found that 90 percent of Canadians would vote against Canada becoming the “51st state,” if a referendum on the subject was held. Only 10 percent of Canadians said they would vote to join America.
Just over 20 percent of Canadians who intend to vote Conservative in the next election would vote to join the U.S., which is about 20 percent more than voters from any of the other major parties. Merely 2 percent of Liberal, 3 percent of NDP, and 1 percent of Bloc Québécois voters said they would vote for Canada to become a U.S. state.
The poll discovered that, on average, 15 percent of Canadian men would prefer to become American. Specifically, 17 percent of men aged 18 to 34 and 22 percent of those aged 35 to 55 would vote “Yes” in the referendum. Only 7 percent of Canadian women on average would vote “Yes.”
Support for Canada joining the U.S. varies by province, with Saskatchewan (18 percent) and Ontario (14 percent) showing the highest support, followed by British Columbia (10 percent), Alberta (10 percent), Manitoba (9 percent), Quebec (8 percent), and Atlantic Canada (3 percent). Opposition remains strong across all regions, ranging from 82 percent in Saskatchewan to 97 percent in Atlantic Canada.
Source: Angus Reid
Among Canadians who intend to vote Conservative in the next election, 33 percent support their province joining the U.S. in the event that a Liberal majority government is elected next, while 67 percent oppose it. Support is highest in Saskatchewan (39 percent), followed by British Columbia and Alberta (34 percent), Quebec (33 percent), Manitoba (32 percent), and Ontario (31 percent). Atlantic Canada shows the lowest support, at 29 percent.
Conservative men (40 percent) are more likely to support their province joining the U.S. than Conservative women (22 percent). The highest male support is seen among men between ages 35 and 54, at 48 percent, and 18 to 34, at 41 percent, while men older than 55 show support at 31 percent. Among women, support declines with age, with 18 to 34 at 34 percent, 35 to 54 at 25 percent, and 55 and older at just 14 percent.
In an interview with Angus Reid Institute president Shachi Kurl, The Hub‘s publisher Rudyard Griffiths said that he took away from this poll that “If the Liberals return to power, we are going to have to reckon with an eruption from the West.” This could take the form of a separation from the rest of the country, since the Conservative vote, especially among men, is so highly concentrated in provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan.
“There is an element of the population that does feel increasingly disenfranchised in those two provinces specifically,” said Kurl.
