This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
Ten percent of Canadians and 21 percent of Conservatives would vote to join the U.S.
Source: Angus Reid
A recent poll from Angus Reid found that 90 percent of Canadians would vote against Canada becoming the “51st state,” if a referendum on the subject was held. Only 10 percent of Canadians said they would vote to join America.
Just over 20 percent of Canadians who intend to vote Conservative in the next election would vote to join the U.S., which is about 20 percent more than voters from any of the other major parties. Merely 2 percent of Liberal, 3 percent of NDP, and 1 percent of Bloc Québécois voters said they would vote for Canada to become a U.S. state.
The poll discovered that, on average, 15 percent of Canadian men would prefer to become American. Specifically, 17 percent of men aged 18 to 34 and 22 percent of those aged 35 to 55 would vote “Yes” in the referendum. Only 7 percent of Canadian women on average would vote “Yes.”
Support for Canada joining the U.S. varies by province, with Saskatchewan (18 percent) and Ontario (14 percent) showing the highest support, followed by British Columbia (10 percent), Alberta (10 percent), Manitoba (9 percent), Quebec (8 percent), and Atlantic Canada (3 percent). Opposition remains strong across all regions, ranging from 82 percent in Saskatchewan to 97 percent in Atlantic Canada.
Source: Angus Reid
Among Canadians who intend to vote Conservative in the next election, 33 percent support their province joining the U.S. in the event that a Liberal majority government is elected next, while 67 percent oppose it. Support is highest in Saskatchewan (39 percent), followed by British Columbia and Alberta (34 percent), Quebec (33 percent), Manitoba (32 percent), and Ontario (31 percent). Atlantic Canada shows the lowest support, at 29 percent.
Conservative men (40 percent) are more likely to support their province joining the U.S. than Conservative women (22 percent). The highest male support is seen among men between ages 35 and 54, at 48 percent, and 18 to 34, at 41 percent, while men older than 55 show support at 31 percent. Among women, support declines with age, with 18 to 34 at 34 percent, 35 to 54 at 25 percent, and 55 and older at just 14 percent.
In an interview with Angus Reid Institute president Shachi Kurl, The Hub‘s publisher Rudyard Griffiths said that he took away from this poll that “If the Liberals return to power, we are going to have to reckon with an eruption from the West.” This could take the form of a separation from the rest of the country, since the Conservative vote, especially among men, is so highly concentrated in provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan.
“There is an element of the population that does feel increasingly disenfranchised in those two provinces specifically,” said Kurl.
More Canadians support joining the E.U. than those who do not
Source: Abacus Data
As American tariffs continue to loom over Canada, 44 percent of Canadians believe the government definitely or probably should consider joining the European Union (EU) as a member state, while 34 percent are opposed.
The picture shifts slightly when Canadians are asked about their general support for Canada becoming a member of the EU. A combined 46 percent strongly or somewhat support Canadian EU membership, while 29 percent are strongly or somewhat opposed. A quarter of Canadians, at 25 percent, remain unsure.
Younger Canadians between the ages of 18 and 29 most strongly support joining the EU, whereas older Canadians 60 and older are more likely to be unsure. When analyzing past federal voting behaviour, Liberal voters show higher support for EU membership, while Conservative party voters are more likely to oppose the idea.
About 48 percent of Canadians think Canada’s economic state would improve if it joined the EU as a member state. Sixty-two percent of Canadians also think that joining the EU would improve the trade relationship between Canada and European countries.
Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union allows membership to be granted to “any European state which respects and is committed to promoting human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities.” However, it does not clearly distinguish and define what makes a country European. Dimitrios Argyroulis, a researcher at the Institute of European studies at the Université Libre de Bruxelles in Belgium, said, “What constitutes a European country is left to political decision-making.” Regardless, The Economist magazine says Canada should join the club.
While supporters point towards shared values and unfettered work and travel across the continent that membership would bring, critics draw attention to the fact that it would likely mean changes to Canada’s currency, added environmental regulations, and draw this country into that continent’s migrant crisis. There is also worry that it could hurt innovation. Some European startup founders contend that the EU’s level of regulation, primarily over technology and artificial intelligence, has hampered growth.
The EU is currently Canada’s second-largest trading partner.
The Conservatives and the Mark Carney-led Liberals are tied
Source: Leger
Canada’s most accurate election pollster, Leger, found that the Liberals and the Conservatives are now in a dead heat, tied at 37 percent of the vote. The NDP trails both parties by 26 percent, retaining only 11 percent of the electorate. The Bloc Québécois and the Green party have 6 and 5 percent respectively.
The poll also found that more than half of all Canadians, 53 percent, want a change in government in the next election.
The Leger poll concluded on March 10, a day after Carney was elected Liberal leader in a landslide victory. Carney was elected with nearly 86 percent of the vote among Liberal members and was sworn in as prime minister yesterday.
According to polling aggregator 338 Canada, no other major pollster in the country has reported a tie between the Liberals and Conservatives since Ipsos did in 2023. Nanos Research came close, with the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by just 1 percent. Most of the polls released by major pollsters found a gap between the two parties of around 5 to 10 percent, with many polls concluding that the Conservatives are still ahead.
In an interview, Andrew Enns, Leger executive vice-president for central Canada said that the shift in voting intentions and the “cross-current of issues that Canadians are grappling with” have never been seen before. He also contended that U.S. tariffs and threats to make Canada the 51st state have caught the attention of Canadians, informing their voting decisions.
Ipsos Global Public Affairs recently released a poll, writing that, “[O]n a number of the key issues, including who is best to unite Canada or come up with policies that would mitigate some of the effects of what the U.S. is doing, Pierre Poilievre actually polls ahead of Carney.”
In an interview with The Hub, Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker told Hub co-founder Sean Speer that while Carney does not present well as an engaging politician, in this moment of crisis, many Canadians might not be seeking charisma.
“He’s not an impressive politician. He’s not somebody who can speak effectively in sound bites. He’s not somebody who can whip up a crowd,” explained Bricker. “His real strong suit, in my view is to be able to say…[t]hat he’s a person who’s reasonable and mature and who can govern the country, maybe not inspirationally, but well in very difficult circumstances.”
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He has served as The Hub's Assistant…
