‘Lapsed liberals have come back to the party’: Shachi Kurl on the Liberals’ polling resurgence and Trump’s impact on Canadian politics

In a recent episode of Trump’s Trade War, Harrison Lowman, managing editor of The Hub, spoke with Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, about the dramatic shifts we’ve witnessed in  Canadian politics over the past few weeks.

The conversation focused on a recent Angus Reid poll showing an unprecedented surge in Liberal support, the impact of Trump’s tariffs and Justin Trudeau’s departure on voters, and the evolving dynamics of the upcoming federal election.

Kurl provided key insights into how Trump’s rhetoric and actions have completely reshaped the federal political landscape, as well as the challenges and opportunities facing the Liberal Party under new leader Mark Carney.

Here are three key takeaways from their discussion:

1. Trump is the new villain in Canadian politics: Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation have reframed the ballot question for the upcoming Canadian election, shifting voter focus from domestic issues to Canada’s relationship with the U.S. The Liberal Party’s surge in support is directly tied to Trump’s actions, with Prime Minister Mark Carney seen by many as the leader best equipped to handle the trade war and protect Canada’s economy.
2. The Liberal surge, the Conservative drop, and the NDP collapse: The Liberals have tripled their support since December 2024, rising from a historic low of 16 percent to now leading the Conservatives by 5 percent. The NDP’s vote share has collapsed to single digits (9 percent), with many left-leaning voters migrating to the Liberals, though it remains uncertain whether voters’ commitments will remain firm. Recent polling from Leger shows that if a federal election were held today, 42 percent would vote for the Liberals, led by Carney, and 39 percent would for the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre.
3. Justin Trudeau’s tale of redemption?: Former Prime Minister Trudeau’s approval rating rebounded from 20 percent to 47 percent as he exited office, largely due to his strong response to Trump’s threats and his ability to rally Canadians during a crisis. His departure removed a major source of voter antipathy, allowing the Liberals to regain support from lapsed voters and centrists.

Trump is the new villain in Canadian politics

Kurl says Trump’s threats to impose major tariffs on Canada, his repeated comments about Canada becoming the “51st state,” and his dismissive attitude toward Canadian industries like oil and lumber have reframed the ballot question. Voters are now focused on which leader can best manage Canada’s relationship with the U.S. and protect the economy from Trump’s trade policies.

“Trump is the big bad villain who’s completely changed up the storyline,” Kurl said. This shift has benefited Carney, who is seen by many Canadians as a steady, experienced leader capable of navigating the trade war.

Kurl noted that the Liberal Party’s surge in support—from a historic low of 16 percent in December 2024 to now leading the Conservatives by 5 percent—is directly tied to Trump’s actions. Carney’s international experience and technocratic background have resonated with voters concerned about Canada’s economic future.

However, Kurl cautioned that while people are saying Carney is the best leader at the moment, the situation could quickly change as the election progresses.

The Liberals surge, the Conservatives drop, and the NDP collapse

The Liberal Party’s dramatic rise in the polls, said Kurl, is one of the most unprecedented shifts in Canadian political history. The pollster highlighted that the Liberals have tripled their support in just 12 weeks, a remarkable turnaround that speaks to the volatility of the current political environment.

“I like to say these numbers are up, down, sideways, and diagonal. I don’t know where they’re going to be tomorrow,” she said.

Kurl discussed how Poilievre’s domestic policy-focused campaigning is not necessarily aligned with Canadians’ new concerns around Trump’s threats.

“At the end of December last year…voters were dialed into a carbon tax election,” she explained. “But with Trump…it’s completely reframed where Canadians are at, in terms of what they are thinking about, and it’s reframed, as a result, the ballot question. The ballot question is now who’s the best leader to deal with Trump.”

Much of the Liberal’s surge has come at the expense of the NDP, whose vote share has collapsed to single digits, as low as 9 percent. Recent polling from Leger has shown that if a federal election were held today, 42 percent of Canadians would vote Liberal, while 39 percent would vote Conservative.

“The NDP vote has basically eaten itself from the inside out,” Kurl said. Many left-leaning voters who had abandoned the Liberals under Trudeau are now returning to the party.

However, Kurl noted that the Liberal support base remains fragile when compared to the Conservatives. While the Liberals have regained some of its lapsed voters, she noted only about half of 2021 Liberal voters say they will return to the party this time. In contrast, two-thirds of past Conservative voters said they remain loyal to the party.

Kurl also pointed out that the left-leaning vote in Canada is now highly dynamic, with voters shifting between the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc Québécois. The big question, she said, is whether the NDP voters who have abandoned Jagmeet Singh will get behind Mark Carney or reconsider their support as they learn more about his centrist policies.

Kurl noted that Alberta and Saskatchewan have long been strongholds for conservative sentiment, and the sense of alienation in these provinces is palpable.

“The notion that Alberta and Saskatchewan are being overlooked, particularly around resource development, over the lack of pipeline infrastructure and not getting things built, and not really exploiting economically the resources that those provinces have. [This] has long been [the case],” she said.

Justin Trudeau’s tale of redemption? 

One of the most surprising developments in recent months has been the rebound in Trudeau’s approval rating as he exited office. Kurl noted that Trudeau’s approval had hovered around 20 percent in the final months of his tenure. However,  it surged to 47 percent as he departed.

Kurl said this rebound was largely due to his strong response to Trump’s threats, which reminded Canadians of his ability to rally the country during times of crisis. Trudeau’s departure also removed a major source of voter antipathy, allowing the Liberals to regain support from lapsed voters and centrists.

Generative AI assisted in the production of this story. If you are quoting from or referencing this episode, please refer to the audio to verify.