Federal Conservatives have struggled to win in Quebec. Can Pierre Poilievre change that? 

The federal Conservatives have long sought to make meaningful gains in Quebec.

Yet the Tories have not won a majority of seats in the province since 1988, and in the past two elections, have even failed to maintain or build upon the seats former prime minister Stephen Harper won in 2015 (12 out of 78 seats), despite noticeable efforts.

Enter Pierre Poilievre, who hopes to win a majority government in the upcoming election and views Quebec as a key part of that strategy.

Although the Harper-led Conservatives were able to win a majority government with only five seats in Quebec in 2011, the Poilievre campaign seems keen on gaining a larger Quebec caucus.

To do so, the party has made some specific nods to the province, including recruiting star candidates such as former Coalition Avenir Québec politician Eric Lefebvre to run, holding its last convention in Quebec City, and even Pierre Poilievre’s recent tour through the province in a campervan with his family in which he launched a new ad campaign targeting Quebecers.

Since then, the political landscape in Canada has of course changed.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s departure have altered the electoral dynamic—causing the Conservatives’ previous 30-point nationwide lead to evaporate. In Quebec, the party has gone from being tied with the Liberals at the start of the year, to now being 10 points behind.

With these challenges in mind, can the Conservatives still gain ground in Quebec? And if so, how?

The Hub spoke to three seasoned politicos to get their insights.

How Conservatives can win amidst Trump’s tariffs

David Boudeweel, a Conservative strategist and president of Quebec-based firm Boudeweel Public Affairs, believes Conservatives stand a chance in Quebec, even with Trump’s tariffs, as it gives the party the opportunity to discuss the concerns around cost of living that have been resonating with Quebecers.

“I don’t think the Trump tariffs are good news for the Conservatives, but it’s an opportunity to reframe the debate with the pocketbook issues,” he told The Hub.

Poilievre has held multiple unusually large rallies in Quebec, including in Montreal and Gatineau, where he has discussed, among other things, cost of living issues.

Tasha Kheiriddin, a political commentator born and raised in Montreal, says Trump has changed everything. To French Canadian ears, the president’s threats of making Canada the 51st state could spell the end of the Quebec nation.

“[Quebecers] feel that there’s a larger issue at stake, and that Canada’s survival as a country is actually beneficial to Quebec,” she explained. “Quebec voters are going to be looking for someone who can defend their way of life.”

Kheiriddin believes Trump will supersede other issues that have traditionally been at the centre of campaigns in Quebec, including the religious identity issues that dominated the 2019 campaign.

This could come at the expense of the separatist Bloc Québécois, which could also hurt the Conservatives if Bloc voters go to the Liberals.

“I don’t think Bill 21 [the public sector religious symbols law] will be a big issue in this campaign. The big issue to pivot to is Trump. My Bloc voter friends are now voting Liberal because they are very worried [about Trump],” she said.

Surging Canadian patriotism among Quebecers could also hurt the Bloc. The percentage of Quebecers saying they are very “proud” or “proud” to be Canadian has risen from 45 percent to 58 percent.

According to a recent Léger poll, 37 percent of Quebecers believe Mark Carney is best placed to represent Canada’s interest against Trump, while just 20 percent believe Poilievre is the best man for the job.

Nationally, Trump is now the second-biggest issue, behind affordability.

Kheiriddin said the time has come for Poilievre to swap some of his more populist rhetoric for a more pragmatic tone.

“If I were the Conservatives, I would focus on defending Canada and having a plan for our industries, for coping, for opening up new markets,” said Kheiriddin.

Poilievre’s new advantages in Quebec

Eric Duhaime, leader of the provincial Conservative Party of Quebec, believes the federal Conservatives will have an advantage in this election that they didn’t have in previous ones—the presence of a strong provincial Conservative party.

During the past four years, with Duhaime at the helm, the Conservative Party of Quebec has gone from being a small party receiving 1.5 percent of the vote, to one receiving 13 percent and growing its membership to over 50,000 people.

While his party won’t formally campaign for Poilevre, Duhaime, who is a member and supporter of the federal party, told The Hub the growth of his party will benefit the federal party.

“When asked about their political identity, Quebecers typically name a provincial party, whereas in the rest of Canada, the focus is on federal parties. You’re a Péquiste before you’re a Bloc supporter in Ottawa, and a Liberal in Quebec before a Liberal in Ottawa,” Duhaime said.

He believes Poilievre has other advantages, including strong French skills—something Carney lacks.

“In the past 40 or so years in Canada, we haven’t had a Conservative leader who spoke better French than a Liberal leader. It’s truly exceptional,” said Duhaime.

Carney received criticism for his French following the French Liberal leadership debate, where he struggled with the language, made errors, and failed to get many of his points across clearly. Just yesterday, his campaign announced he would not be taking part in the TVA French-language debate.

Unlike Kheiriddin, Duhaime does not believe Poilievre needs to reinvent the wheel and abandon his narrative about Canada’s failings to win support in the face of Trump.

“People talk to me about their financial struggles and how it’s getting harder for them.  They see the waste of public funds, and they are disgusted. Young people can’t afford to buy homes. Health care is crumbling everywhere. Those are real problems.”

How many seats can Conservatives win?

Boudeweel believes Conservatives can realistically aim to gain five or six seats, mostly around the Quebec City region. This would bring their total Quebec seat count from 10 to 15 or 16. The Liberals and the Bloc currently each hold 33 seats, and the NDP has one. There are a total of 78 seats in Quebec.

However, Boudeweel also cautioned that the party should avoid overcommitting to Quebec, at the expense of key vote-rich regions, such as the Greater Toronto Area or Alberta.

“I think [they] stand a chance, but you don’t want to end up sacrificing 20 seats in the Toronto area for five seats in Quebec. It’s always a balancing act. All the federal parties have to make compromises, except the Bloc Québécois, because they’re only running in a single province,” he said.

During the last campaign, the O’Toole campaign was criticized by those who said he sidelined the Conservative base in an attempt to shore up support from moderate voters in places like Quebec. The approach resulted in the Tories losing seats in Ontario and B.C., while not gaining a single new seat in the province. This was even though he received the endorsement of Premier Legault.

Duhaime said he is optimistic the Conservatives could sweep through Quebec.

“I call Quebec the ‘wave pool.’ It’s a place where a political wave can happen. We’ve seen the Brian Mulroney wave, the orange wave. There is real potential for growth [and as] Quebec Conservatives, we can contribute to that movement and that growth.”

Léger polling firm CEO Jean-Marc Léger once described Quebec voters as “cyclothymics,” noting that they often jump from one party to another en masse with no deep allegiances.

“Elections in English Canada are easier to predict because the vote is more stable and voters are more loyal. Quebecers are cyclothymics. At each election, they fall in love with a leader,” said Léger in 2022.