On Thursday evening, Hub readers, listeners, and viewers in Toronto gathered downtown to watch the leaders’ debate on the big screen.
Before and after the debate, we asked audience members who they were voting for and what they thought about the debate, and who they thought would ultimately win.
The Hub’s English-language debate watch party in Toronto, April 17, 2025. Credit: The Hub.
The results below reflect 20 voters before the debate and 70 after.
You can have your say on the winner too—click here to share your thoughts on the debate and predict the election winner!
Voting intention
Hub readers shifted significantly from the Liberals to the Conservatives over the course of the debate, reflecting a positive impression of Poilievre’s performance, which is confirmed in our follow-up question below. While the Conservatives would love to see a shift of even half this size, it remains to be seen how Canadians more broadly will respond to the debate.
Graphic credit: Janice Nelson.
Best debate performance
Like Canadians more broadly, The Hub’s viewers expected Mark Carney to perform best at the debate, but ranked him third overall. Poilievre ranked first, as we could expect from the shift in support above, but tied with him is the Bloc’s Blanchet, who turned in a dynamic performance criticizing Carney particularly and arguing aggressively for Quebec’s interests.
Graphic credit: Janice Nelson.
Worst debate performance
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh met expectations in the worst way last night, and was overwhelmingly voted as the worst performer. His aggressive style and many interruptions were not appreciated by the Hub audience, and importantly, his poor performance had big implications for who Hub viewers think will win the election.
Graphic credit: Janice Nelson.
Who will be Canada’s next prime minister?
Finally, Hub viewers were asked the odds of each of Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre becoming Canada’s next prime minister, with Mark Carney coming out on top, 63 percent to 37 percent. This represents an improvement for Poilievre’s chances relative to what forecasting platforms and betting markets were reflecting earlier in the day, but with only a few days left before election day, tonight’s debate doesn’t seem to have been enough to propel Poilievre back into the lead.
Graphic credit: Janice Nelson.
What do you say?
Time to make your own prediction—check out the Canada’s next PM question hosted on RANGE to have your say on who will win the next election.
RANGE is a crowdsourced forecasting program focused on geopolitics and the transatlantic relationship. RANGE is run by the Bertelsmann Foundation & Bertelsmann Stiftung to bring accurate, credible, and forward-looking insights to clients and the public on both sides of the Atlantic. The RANGE platform is powered by Cultivate Labs.
