This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
Liberals ahead of the Conservatives as election day nears
Sources: 338 Canada and Mainstreet Research
With election day only two days away, the Liberals are slightly ahead of the Conservatives nationally. Most major pollsters, including Nanos, Mainstreet, Leger, and Abacus, find the Liberal lead sitting between 2 and 5 percent.
The current national polling average has the Liberals at 42 percent, the Conservatives at 38 percent, and the NDP at 9 percent. This would lead to a Liberal majority government, with an estimated 186 seats compared to the Conservatives’ 125 according to the 338 Canada election simulator.
In January, the Liberals trailed the Conservatives by around 20 percent. The 338Canada national polling average gave the Tories a 25 percent lead.
A major pollster hasn’t had the parties tied in five days. That poll had the Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck at 40 percent.
None of the current national polls would produce anything short of a Liberal minority government. If the Conservatives and Liberals were tied at 40 percent, a Tory minority government would be possible at around 159 seats to the Liberals’ 152. That would occur if the NDP had around 9 percent support and the Bloc Québécois had 6 percent.
“Most polls, including ours at Abacus Data, show a tight race. For the past three weeks, we’ve consistently had the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by 2 to 3 points nationally. Among those who have already voted or are most certain to vote, the gap grows to 5. That may not sound like much. But in our electoral system and in the current context, that would be plenty for the Liberals to win a majority,” Abacus Data’s CEO David Coletto wrote in The Hub.
“To win as many seats as the Liberals, the Conservatives don’t just have to match them in national support—they have to substantially outperform them,” he contends, focusing on the regional breakdown of Conservative support and the party’s voter efficiency.
Coletto points to the makeup of the Liberal coalition. Grit support is primarily urban, diverse, and stable in vote-rich ridings. The NDP is weaker than normal, which has led to the Liberals consolidating the progressive vote. Furthermore, Carney’s favourables are still high enough to pull in Conservative switchers (predominantly Baby Boomers) who are concerned about global economic instability and Donald Trump.
Conservatives could be slightly ahead in Ontario
Source: Innovative Research
According to a recent Innovative Research poll, the Conservatives are just ahead of the Liberals in battleground Ontario.
This poll is somewhat of an outlier. The most recent Abacus Data national poll, for example, has the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 5 points in Ontario, at 45 percent to the Tories’ 40 percent. The Liberals are also ahead in Ontario in the latest Leger poll, leading the Conservatives by 7 percent.
Ontario has 122 seats up for grabs, 31 of which are in the Greater Toronto Area. Several seats in the GTA, as well as a few of the six Ottawa-area seats, are in close contention. Securing Ontario seats is crucial for either a Conservative or Liberal victory.
To get close to a majority government, the Conservatives would need to lead in Ontario by 7 percent in the popular vote and keep the Liberals to less than 28 percent in Ontario and Alberta combined, based on estimations by David Coletto.
Liberal leader Mark Carney and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh were campaigning in Ontario on Friday, while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre was campaigning in Saskatchewan. This weekend, Poilievre will head to Oakville and then to Ottawa.
Nearly half of Canadians are waiting to vote on election day
Source: David Coletto, Abacus Data
Based on a recent Abacus Data survey, pollster David Coletto found that about a quarter of Canadians already voted in advance polls, while nearly half of the voting population is waiting to vote on election day. Of the Canadians who have already cast their ballot, he shows 43 percent voted for the Liberals, 36 percent for the Conservatives, 11 percent for the NDP, and 6 percent for the Bloc Québécois.
The total estimated turnout for the election is 71 percent, the highest since the 1988 election, which had 75 percent turnout. That 1988 election had Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives winning a 169-seat majority government. The John Turner-led Liberals won 83 seats, and the Ed Broadbent-led NDP won 43 seats. Only 62.6 percent of Canadians voted in the last federal election.
Over the four days of advance voting on the Easter weekend, a record-high 7.3 million Canadians went to the polls. This was a 25 percent increase over the advance voting turnout in the last election.
“Voter turnout may end up being the singular factor that decides whether the 2025 election is a Liberal or Conservative victory,” Tristan Hopper contended in the National Post.
Every percentage point of higher voter turnout benefits the Conservatives, according to Conservative strategist Nick Kouvalis on X. He argues that high turnout means many more young voters will have gone to the polls, compared to prior elections. This could dilute the “potency” of voters over 65, who have leaned Liberal throughout the campaign.
The Conservative Party has strong support among younger voters, a demographic historically known for low voter turnout. In the 2021 election, only 47 percent of Canadians under 24 voted, compared to 75 percent of Canadians over 65.
A Leger survey from this week showed 44 percent of voters aged 18-34 support the Conservatives, compared to just 38 percent for the Liberals. This age group is now the party’s strongest demographic. Youth turnout could be the key to a Conservative victory.
Most Canadians predict a Liberal win
Source: Leger
According to a new Leger poll, more than 50 percent of Canadians predict a Liberal win, whereas only a quarter predict a Conservative victory. About 16 percent of Canadians don’t know which party will be victorious.
Even a quarter of Canadians who intend to vote Conservative predict Carney will remain prime minister after Monday’s tally. About 60 percent of Conservative voters predict a Conservative win, compared to 90 percent of Liberal voters who predict their party will win.
The global betting landscape reflects this sentiment. Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has a 79 percent chance of the Carney-led Liberals winning the election, at time of writing. The Tories only have a 21 percent chance. Kalshi, another prediction market, has an 82 percent chance of the Liberals winning the election, only giving the Conservatives a 19 percent chance.
However, the betting site FanDuel, which exclusively operates in Ontario, says that 70 percent of bets placed on the winner of the election were placed on the Conservatives, with only 28 percent of wagerers betting on the Liberals.
Polling agency YouGov, which developed a prediction based on interviews with 20,000 Canadian voters, projects the Liberals winning a majority government. That prediction puts the Liberals somewhere between 163 to 201 seats, with a central estimate of 182. The Conservatives are expected to win somewhere between 115 to 153 seats, with a central prediction of 133.
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He is The Hub's Assistant Editor. He…
