Mark Carney and the Liberals won another minority on Monday while the Conservatives overperformed expectations. But beyond the seat count, the real story might be the deep changes in the coalition of voters for both parties, both in terms of regional strength, but especially with respect to some demographics—age and ethnicity in particular.
Using preliminary results in each riding, I find that the Tories increased their share of votes the most in ridings that were more male, younger (under 55), and had more people with only a high-school diploma. On the other hand, the Conservatives did worse (at least relatively) in ridings with more women, more people aged 55 and over, and had more people with a university degree. This is exactly what was predicted by the polls.
The only demographic the polls seemed to have got wrong is income, as we find that the Tories did worse with people making less than $50,000 and better with high-income individuals (over $100,000). Right-wing parties have been doing well around the world recently with young voters, and Canada was no exception.
The Liberals did the exact opposite. Their coalition is now older and more educated. As for the NDP, they lost the most in ridings with young voters and with a higher share of degree holders. Is it because young people—focused on housing and economic opportunities—decided to vote for change while more educated voters decided to rally behind the Liberals to stop Trump? In both cases, the NDP got squeezed out.
The biggest realignment, however, occurred along racial lines. The strongest correlation with the change in the shares of votes was with how many voters were South Asian in a given riding.
While the CPC increased its share of votes by 8.6 percent on average (outside of Quebec), this number reached 12.7 percent in ridings with over 15 percent of South Asians, and it was almost 15 percent in ridings with over 25 percent. The Liberals, on the other hand, grew their share by 11.4 percent on average, but only by 2 percent in ridings with at least 15 percent of South Asians, and actually dropped by 0.3 percent in ridings with over 25 percent.
This massive realignment (along with others) explains a big part of why Poilievre did better in the GTA and why his vote became more efficient. It wasn’t enough to win outright, though. Most of Brampton and Surrey remained Liberal, but the margins became smaller. Among the ridings with at least 15 percent South Asians, the Liberals won 27 seats while the CPC won 9. It would therefore not take a large swing for the Tories to win another 20-plus seats and form government. The relationship with the Chinese vote is also there, but slightly less strong. Those realignments almost made John Rustad premier of B.C. last October and could well make Poilievre (or his successor) PM next time around.
Ethnic communities are often considered economically or fiscally liberal but more socially or culturally conservative. My own estimates have shown that this was a group that was surprisingly strong for the Liberals in 2021 (I say surprisingly as Trudeau was quite progressive—even woke). Pre-election analysis from Abacus Research had shown that this was the quadrant moving the most towards the Conservatives.
The results of this week confirmed this. It could have serious policy and platform implications for future campaigns. This will, in particular, likely continue the trend of conservative parties being more open to running deficits but being less shy to talk about social issues (not talking abortion here, but gender related topics, for instance, especially if it affects parents in the suburbs). There as well, Rustad and the BC Conservatives paved the way last year, and Poilievre continued, albeit with a lighter focus on these social issues.
Regionally, Poilievre also won surprising seats in Newfoundland, Northern Ontario, and Vancouver Island. Those wins have less to do with a racial realignment and more with an urban-rural polarization. The “Trump effect” likely prevented a further realignment in Atlantic Canada, but that could come next election.
All in all, a somewhat disappointing night for the Conservatives showed some promising trends. Now the Tories need to reflect on how to keep those gains while trying to recapture more of the older voters.
Additionally, they might have to assess if those realignments were caused by Poilievre or would have happened anyway. With the CPC leader losing his own seat, the party might have a different leader next time around.
