In an interview on Hub Dialogues, former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney delivered a blunt analysis of Western alienation, Alberta separatist sentiment, and the challenges facing Canadian conservatism.
Here are five key takeaways from the conversation:
- Separatism: more bark than bite: There has only been one separatist who has won in the last 45 years of Alberta politics. Kenney warns that whether or not separatist sentiments become a serious threat, we cannot dismiss what happens to communities that will be fractured by the idea of separatism.
- Reality check: The number of Alberta citizens opposed to separation from Canada is increasing through out-of-province immigration.
- Carney’s Alberta test: The federal government’s commitment to Canada’s energy sector is an important sector to get right. Kenney argues that appointments of Steven Guilbeault and Gregor Robertson (both having demonstrated being anti-pipeline) are concerning. But, recent oilsands investments are promising.
- A conservative identity crisis: A new conservative opposition to the Crown, Kenney suggests, is detrimental, as the Crown represents unity and history.
- A blueprint for conservative success: Kenney believes Poilievre has done well as leader of the official Opposition—but he outlines how, by engaging with others on the international stage, the Conservative leader could have been more “prime ministerial.”
Separatism: more bark than bite—but dangerous nonetheless
Kenney dismissed hardcore separatist sentiment as marginal, noting that in 45 years of Alberta politics, only one separatist candidate—Gordon Kesler in 1982—has ever been elected, and even he was quickly defeated.
The 2021 federal election saw the Western Canada separatist Maverick Party garner just 35,000 votes across Canada, 25,000 of which came from Alberta.
However, Kenney warned that polls showing 35-45 percent support for separation reflect “frustrated federalists” using separatist rhetoric as leverage against Ottawa—akin to Quebec’s “knife to the throat” strategy—rather than genuine secessionist desire. He cautioned that a referendum, even if defeated by 85 percent of voters, could permanently fracture communities, comparing it to a “nonviolent civil war” that would divide businesses and families.
“We’ve got bigger things to deal with. Let’s focus on leading the Federation, not leaving it,” he concluded.
A demographic reality check
Kenney highlighted that Alberta’s unique demographics acted as a bulwark against separation: some half of Albertans were born outside the province, and visible minorities—who he said overwhelmingly oppose separation—now form a significant part of the population. He noted that conversely, separatist rallies conspicuously lack diversity. He expressed alarm that a referendum could, “create for the first time ever in our history a totally unnecessary divide along ethnic origins.”
Carney’s Alberta test: high hopes, early red flags
While acknowledging Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Alberta roots, Kenney expressed some skepticism about his government’s commitment to the energy sector. He pointed to concerning cabinet appointments like Guilbeault (a longtime pipeline opponent) and Robertson (a former anti-pipeline B.C. mayor) as signs of continuity with Trudeau-era policies.
Kenney contrasted this with Jean Chrétien’s pro-resource cabinet, which oversaw oil sands growth. However, he noted an encouraging signal: oil executive Adam Waterous’ post-election oilsands takeover bid, reportedly after promising conversations with Carney.
“Where’s the beef?” Kenney asked, urging concrete action on pipelines and emissions caps.
A conservative identity crisis?
Kenney sounded the alarm about growing Republican-style sentiments within Canadian conservative ranks, particularly opposition to the monarchy—a stark departure from their tradition as “the party of the Crown.”
“[The Crown represents] stability, order, continuity, tradition, unity,” Kenney emphasized, calling its rejection a dangerous trend.
He also called attention to older voters now migrating to the Liberals, whom they now view as the true institutional conservatives.
While agreeing with conservative critiques of liberal elites, he warned against “burning down institutions,” rather than reforming them.
A blueprint for Conservative success
Kenney praised Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s effectiveness as Opposition leader but suggested conservatives must broaden their appeal to win power. He suggested Poilievre should have taken a more “prime ministerial” approach in the lead-up to election day: engaging with international allies like U.S. Democrats and U.K. Conservatives in their home countries and reaffirming support for NATO on a trip to Ukraine.
“The growth of this new blue-collar conservative coalition is phenomenal,” Kenney said, acknowledging legitimate grievances about housing, stagnant wages, and public safety. However, he argued that anger alone isn’t enough. “To form majority governments in Canada, you have to present both a tone and a programme that is ready to govern.”
Generative AI assisted in the production of this article using content from The Hub’s YouTube channel.
