Imagine announcing you’ve bought a house, but only on the condition that you win the lottery.
That’s essentially what the prime minister did last week. Following the lead of France and the United Kingdom, Mark Carney declared that Canada would recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly next month.
But here’s the catch, in his own words:
This intention is predicated on the Palestinian Authority’s commitment to much-needed reforms, including the commitments by Palestinian Authority President Abbas to fundamentally reform its governance, to hold general elections in 2026 in which Hamas can play no part, and to demilitarize the Palestinian state.
He continued:
Hamas must immediately release all hostages taken in the horrific terrorist attack of October 7; Hamas must disarm; and Hamas must play no role in the future governance of Palestine.
This isn’t recognition. It’s a firm “maybe.”
Canada might recognize Palestine, he says, if the Palestinian Authority can achieve the impossible. This isn’t diplomacy. It’s symbolic gesturing. It’s political theatre. The foreign policy equivalent of believing pigs will fly.
Let’s be honest, if the Palestinian Authority could disarm Hamas, demilitarize Gaza and the West Bank, hold free and fair elections excluding Hamas, and return all the Israeli hostages. Then perhaps it would be deserving of statehood. But the odds of that happening are next to zero.