Conservatives top Liberals in new poll as cost of living remains Canadians’ top issue

In the immediate aftermath of U.S. President Donald Trump raising tariffs by 35 percent and a job report showing Canada lost nearly 41,000 jobs in July, there are signs that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government’s honeymoon with Canadians may be coming to an end. According to new numbers from Abacus Data, 41 percent of Canadians would vote for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives compared to 39 percent support for the Liberal Party, if an election were held today. The poll showed a four percentage point drop for the Liberals and a one point boost in support for the Conservatives. It’s the first time a top Canadian polling firm has shown a Tory lead since the election. “Something I’ve argued before and see in the data, the Conservative 2025 coalition is more durable than the Liberal one,” Abacus Data CEO David Coletto stated on X. “It will take more work for the Liberals to keep theirs together than it will for the Conservatives to.” The Abacus Data poll shows the dominant issue for a majority of Canadians continues to be cost of living, with 60 percent of respondents selecting it as a top-three issue. The economy, housing affordability, and health care, all closely related to cost of living, were in the top four issues on Canadians’ minds at 36, 35, and 33 percent, respectively. The issue of U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration fell to 38 percent from 44 percent earlier this summer. The polling data revealed other positive signs for the Conservatives. More Canadians believe the Conservative Party of Canada is the better party to handle crime and public safety (61 percent), immigration (56 percent), the economy (45 percent), rising cost of living (39 percent), housing affordability and accessibility (36 percent), and health care (30 percent) compared to any other federal party. The poll’s results weren’t all bad for Carney’s Liberals. They still dominate on the issues of dealing with the Trump administration at 56 percent support, the threat posed by China and Russia at 35 percent, and climate change and the environment at 37 percent. Comparably, the Conservatives only registered the confidence of 21 percent of respondents in dealing with Washington, 27 percent in dealing with the threats of China and Russia, and 9 percent for handling climate change and the environment. The Carney-led Liberals still enjoy 49 percent support from Canadians. Carney versus Poilievre in the polls shows a much higher favourable rating at 48 percent positive rating to the Conservative leader’s 40 percent. Poilievre still remains underwater for net favourability, with 42 percent of Canadians having a negative impression of him. On the other hand, 30 percent of Canadians view Carney negatively. Abacus Data’s latest survey shows the Liberals and Conservatives are still in a clear two-way race. Only 7 percent of Canadians showed support for the leaderless New Democratic Party. Meanwhile, another 7 percent of Canadians in Quebec are supporting the Bloc. The Greens and the People’s Party received 2 percent support each. The 1,915 Canadian adults included in the poll were surveyed between Aug. 15 and 19, before the Air Canada flight attendants began full strike action and days before Poilievre resoundingly won his byelection race and Carney announced Canada was retreating from its retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.