The Liberal Party’s leadership transition from Justin Trudeau to Prime Minister Mark Carney has fundamentally altered Canada’s political landscape, creating new challenges for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as the country heads toward what increasingly looks like a two-party race. With Carney’s Bay Street credentials and policy agenda that closely mirrors Conservative positions, the traditional political dynamics have been scrambled.
The Hub spoke with Kory Teneycke, co-founder of Rubicon Strategy and three-time campaign manager to Premier Doug Ford, to better understand how these shifting dynamics could reshape the next federal election campaign.
Here are five key takeaways from the conversation:
1. Carney’s government resembles Harper more than Trudeau: The Carney Liberals shifting to the centre has created unexpected political realignments, forcing Conservatives to recalibrate their approach while the NDP remains uncompetitive despite the Liberals abandoning their more progressive base.
2. Poilievre’s “Superman” strategy may backfire against Carney: The Conservative leader’s solo-focused campaign style worked against Trudeau but has proven inadequate against a candidate with stronger credentials like Carney. A new strategy highlighting the Conservative bench strength may be more appropriate.
3. The Conservatives are hemorrhaging older voters: Those particularly in the 55-plus demographic that typically forms the core of conservative coalitions are supporting the Liberals more and more, due to concerns about Poilievre’s resume and rhetoric.
4. Major infrastructure projects will be the key execution test: Conservatives may have credibility advantages over a Liberal government trying to implement what was originally a Conservative policy agenda, especially if Carney cannot deliver.
5. Canada is transitioning to a two-party system: The new calculus makes the Conservative target of 42 percent support inadequate for victory and requires broader coalition-building.
Carney’s government resembles Harper more than Trudeau
The most striking development in Canadian politics has been how Carney’s policy positioning has scrambled traditional party lines. “The Carney government looks a lot more like a fourth term of Stephen Harper than a fourth term of Justin Trudeau. And so that has created, you would think, a lot of room on the Left, but you’re seeing simultaneously the NDP essentially disappear,” Teneycke observed, noting how this shift has created unexpected voter movements.
This realignment has particularly hurt the NDP, as blue-collar workers migrate to the Conservatives while progressive voters reluctantly support Carney’s Liberals. Teneycke explained that traditional NDP supporters who “drive an F150 and have steel-toe boots” are finding common ground with Conservative messaging, while other progressive voters are backing Carney primarily as a reaction against Poilievre, rather than enthusiasm for Liberal policies.
Poilievre’s “Superman” strategy may backfire against Carney
The Conservative approach of making everything about “Pierre for prime minister” worked effectively against Trudeau, but faces new challenges against Carney’s credentials. “I think when you’re up against Trudeau, that can be a really winning approach. But when you’re up against Carney, if you’re Poilievre, I don’t think that’s a winning approach,” Teneycke said.
Instead, the Conservatives need to “make an Avengers movie” by showcasing their broader team of talent. The analyst suggested leveraging capable caucus members and Conservative premiers to create a more comprehensive governing alternative, noting that “there are some really talented people within that Conservative caucus and within the Conservative movement more generally.”
However, Teneycke conceded Poilievre’s Conservatives are winning on some issues. “I think one of the other areas where you’ve seen the Conservatives score some points in the past, and I think continue to have opportunities, is around cost of housing and number of housing starts that we see. Housing starts have largely stalled out. We’re shooting this here in Toronto. We’ve got 25,000 empty condos that can’t be sold right now, and we’ll probably have 10,000 more by the end of the year.”
The Conservatives are hemorrhaging older voters
Perhaps most concerning for Conservative prospects is the loss of older voters, traditionally their most reliable demographic. “The story of the election campaign is the loss of 55-plus voters, which is the core of every conservative voting coalition in my lifetime,” the analyst noted, describing this development as “shocking.”
For male voters in this demographic, the issue appears to be credibility and resume. Teneycke pointed to the stark contrast between candidates: “You’ve got somebody who’s had some jobs in politics and has really never had any private sector experience of any sort, versus somebody who’s had some of the largest jobs in the economy that you can have.” For female voters, the concern is more stylistic, with Poilievre’s approach appearing “too Trumpian” and his association with figures like Jordan Peterson being “pretty radioactive to a lot of women.”
Major infrastructure projects will be the key execution test
While trade negotiations with the U.S. remain uncertain, the real political battleground may be domestic infrastructure delivery. Teneycke identified this as the Conservatives’ strongest potential advantage, arguing that “the Conservatives maintain a higher level of credibility that they can get those things done.”
The irony is that “Carney has largely taken the Poilievre plan and is trying to execute on it,” creating an opening for Conservatives to argue that “the person who came up with that plan would execute on that plan better than the person who borrowed it at the 11th hour.” However, execution challenges around Indigenous consultation and potential court challenges could complicate any government’s efforts.
Canada is transitioning to a two-party system
The broader context shaping these dynamics is Canada’s apparent shift toward two-party competition. “I would posit that we’re probably for the foreseeable future in a two-party race,” Teneycke observed, arguing the mathematics of victory have fundamentally changed.
This means the Conservative target of 42 percent support, while impressive in a three-party system, becomes “a really inadequate number in a two-party race.” The challenge for Conservatives is expanding beyond their affordability-focused base to build a broader coalition capable of winning in this new political reality.
This commentary draws on a Hub podcast. It was edited using AI. Full program here.
