‘Let markets decide’: Five takeaways on Carney’s national projects list falling short of campaign rhetoric

The projects appear modest compared to campaign promises The five projects announced by Carney include port capacity expansions and copper mining developments—initiatives that Griffiths characterized as worthy but unremarkable. “I just put these five together and they seem…to me, a little underwhelming,” Griffiths observed, noting a significant gap between the Prime Minister’s wartime-level rhetoric and the actual scope of announced projects. Speer agreed with this assessment, suggesting the projects “don’t seem to be the types of projects that really move the ball forward in terms of boosting investment and employment and output in Canada’s economy.” The disconnect becomes more pronounced when considering Carney’s campaign promises about fundamental economic transformation and his invocation of Second World War-era mobilization language. A two-tier system creates more bureaucracy rather than fixing underlying problems Rather than reforming Canada’s existing regulatory framework, Bill C-5 created what Speer described as “essentially a parallel regime that would be more expeditious and truncated for projects in the ‘national interest.’” This approach leaves the vast majority of projects “stuck in the system that the Prime Minister himself implicitly says isn’t working.” Speer used an analogy to illustrate the problem: “It’s kind of the equivalent of having a doorway into your home that was too small, that was broken, that needed repairs, and instead of fixing it, you built a separate doorway that people could come through, but that you only decided who came through it.” This creates what he characterized as “layering on what the government has acknowledged is ultimately a broken system.” Political selection replaces market-driven project prioritization The selection process for national interest projects has been driven by lobbying efforts rather than market forces, according to Speer. “Different companies and different provincial leaders have been lobbying to get their projects on this list of projects in the national interest to bypass the slow and cumbersome status quo,” he explained. This political approach contrasts with what Speer identified as the preferred alternative “to get at the heart of the problems with our current regulatory and permitting processes and then having done so, let markets decide what. Which projects are going to come forward for consideration and review.” Implementation timelines remain lengthy despite “expedited” process Despite promises of expedited approval, the announced projects still face significant delays. Speer noted that “the Prime Minister is announcing that these are the ones that will now be subject to review under the rules from Bill C-5. It still means likely as long as two years under scrutiny.” This timeline means “we could be past the next election before there are any shovels in the ground.” It raises questions about whether the approach can address immediate economic challenges, including recent job losses and potential U.S. trade pressures. The government favors state-directed solutions over deregulation Griffiths identified a pattern in the Carney government’s approach, describing it as “more state direction, state direction of process, state direction of finance, state direction of new state capacity.” He questioned whether this approach addresses “the fundamental things that are holding the Canadian economy back,” such as “declining productivity, lack of investment in machinery and technology.” Speer characterized this as the government’s “predisposition to see these issues through the lens of technocracy,” noting that “Prime Minister Carney’s diagnosis of what ails Canada’s economy, I think, has been better and more accurate than, say, Prime Minister Trudeau’s. But where they have huge similarities is in their solutions.” Both leaders, he argued, are “drawn to this approach that elevates the role of government.” This commentary draws on a Hub podcast. It was edited using AI. Full program here.