As optimism for a Gaza ceasefire deal fluctuates, foreign policy analyst and Hub contributor David Frum warns that Donald Trump’s negotiating tactics may be undermining his own diplomatic efforts. Despite initial hopes for a breakthrough, Frum argues that Trump’s tendency to prematurely announce success could box him into accepting an unsustainable agreement that fails to address Israel’s core security concerns.
The Hub spoke with Frum to better understand the challenges facing current Middle East peace negotiations and their broader implications.
Here are five key takeaways from the conversation:
1. Trump’s negotiating style may backfire on him: Frum argues that Trump’s habit of announcing success before it’s achieved removes his own negotiating flexibility rather than pressuring other parties.
2. Hamas’ ideological goals make traditional pressure tactics ineffective: As an apocalyptic Islamic movement rather than a nationalist organization, Frum says Hamas views Palestinian suffering as acceptable collateral damage for its ultimate religious objectives.
3. Israel requires sustainable security guarantees, not just hostage releases: Any lasting agreement must prevent Hamas from reconstituting itself as Gaza’s governing authority and controlling international aid flows.
4. Western governments face domestic pressure that distorts their diplomatic approach: Public order concerns in Western cities around massive pro-Palestine demonstrations lead governments to pressure Israel rather than Hamas, despite this being strategically counterproductive.
5. Antisemitic sentiment in Western societies has deeper cultural roots beyond just immigration: The current crisis taps into longstanding Christian and non-Christian narratives about Jews as outsiders and obstacles to redemption.
Trump’s negotiating style may backfire
“When Hamas confirms, the Ceasefire will be IMMEDIATELY effective, the Hostages and Prisoner Exchange will begin, and we will create the conditions for the next phase of withdrawal, which will bring us close to the end of this 3,000 YEAR CATASTROPHE,” President Trump wrote in a Truth Social post, commenting on a deal nearing the finish line.
Frum believes a fundamental flaw in Trump’s approach to the Gaza negotiations is his public outbursts before a deal has been finalized.
“One of Donald Trump’s distinctive negotiating tricks is to announce that something has happened or that something is about to happen, when in fact it hasn’t happened and isn’t about to happen,” Frum explained. Trump’s theory is that such announcements trap negotiating parties by removing their room to maneuver.
However, Frum argues this strategy often backfires.
“What he never sees when he does this trick is it’s not only the parties, and not even principally the parties, whose freedom of action is taken away when Trump announces a success. It’s his own freedom of action that is taken away.” This dynamic appears to be playing out in current negotiations, where Trump seems to be altering his position rather than Hamas adjusting theirs.
Recent reports suggest Trump’s team has indeed been making concessions to secure a deal. According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff has been pressing Israeli officials to accept terms that would allow Hamas to maintain some governance role in Gaza.
Hamas’s ideological goals make traditional pressure tactics ineffective
Frum emphasizes that Western policymakers fundamentally misunderstand Hamas’ motivations.
“Hamas is not a Palestine national liberation movement at all,” he states. “Hamas is an apocalyptic, revolutionary Islamic movement. And the destruction of the state of Israel is to them a step on the way to the ultimate goal, which is the redemption of the world through the reestablishment of proper Islamic sovereignty.”
This state of mind means that Hamas views Palestinian civilian casualties as acceptable losses in the service of a greater religious mission.
“If you believed that you could redeem the world, usher in a new messianic age for all of humanity, or at least all of Islamic humanity—a billion people—and the price is a little extra homelessness for a few hundred thousand people, that…suffering is well worth it.”
Israel requires sustainable security guarantees, not just hostage releases
According to Frum, Israel’s requirements for any lasting agreement extend far beyond the immediate return of hostages.
“They need to have some kind of assurance that Hamas is not going to reconstitute itself as it’s done at intervals,” he explains. The pattern of previous conflicts has seen Hamas maintain control over Gaza’s resources and governance structures since 2007, allowing it to rebuild and launch future attacks.
Central to this dynamic is control over international aid flows to Gaza.
“Relative to the size of the local economy, [aid is] the biggest thing going…And who controls that…means they can control hiring, patronage, all kinds of all the instrumentalities of power.”
Western governments face domestic pressure that distorts their diplomatic approach
Frum argues that domestic security concerns in Western capitals are driving counterproductive diplomatic strategies. Recent violent incidents, including the attack on a synagogue in Manchester, U.K., and massive protests in European cities, have created pressure on governments to seek any resolution that might calm domestic tensions.
“The governments everywhere think, ‘If we can just get some kind of resolution, we can make our lives a lot easier,’” Frum observes. “And [politicians think], ‘We don’t have any way to pressure Hamas, but we do have ways to pressure Israel. So if we can just bring some pressure to bear on Israel, we can then make life safer for our people.’”
Antisemitic sentiment in Western societies has deeper cultural roots beyond immigration
While acknowledging that some recent immigrants may hold antisemitic attitudes, Frum argues that the current surge in anti-Jewish sentiment draws primarily from deeper cultural sources within Western societies themselves. He points to Christian and post-Christian narratives that cast Jews as obstacles to redemption.
“Christianity contains within it a powerful ideal of the sinless sufferer,” Frum explains. “The people who retain the idea from the myth of the sinless sufferer, that’s always there. And the idea that Jews are an obstacle to the redemption of the world, that is again, a Christian legacy that people who are post-Christian will retain.”
This analysis suggests that antisemitic incidents during the Gaza conflict reflect broader domestic cultural tensions rather than simply imported prejudices. Frum warns that these same cultural fault lines could be exploited for other causes, from environmental activism to Indigenous rights movements.
