Danielle Smith takes a hit with teachers’ strike backlash, but still has political capital to burn

“Almost every question was producing basically the same numbers,” Brown said about recent polling patterns. “A third of the people gave you—excuse my language—the crazy-ass right-wing answer. A third of the people gave you the crazy-ass left-wing answer. And a third of the people gave you kind of a more pragmatic, ‘Well, I can see it both ways’ answer.” That breakdown is key to understanding why Smith has not just survived, but thrived through storms that have sunk other premiers. As long as she holds both her ideological base and that pragmatic middle third, she remains secure. The middle doesn’t even have to like her. They just need to believe she can deliver for them more (or break fewer things) than the alternative. Go ahead and test the theory. Take the separatist debate, the Sovereignty Act, trans policy, Alberta Health Services restructuring, even the “corruptcare” allegations. Each time—as Brown describes it—the Left “lights their hair on fire,” while the Right rallies around the premier. The pragmatic middle, meanwhile, shrugs and stays. They might be annoyed, but they’re not motivated enough to want a new government. When times are good, the economy can do a lot of the heavy-lifting to quell concerns. The progressive third is not her market, so why even bother? This moment is different The teachers’ strike is the first time that this equilibrium has shifted. That’s because everyone—Left, Right, and middle—experienced the disruption in their own homes. You don’t have to follow politics to notice when school is cancelled. One might have expected that blowing up the health-care system would’ve caused a similar backlash. But so far, that restructuring has largely been administrative. Most Albertas have not yet felt it at the point of delivery. In health, Smith still appears in control. That is the same image she is trying to project now. Crucially, the same Leger poll that shows her approval dropping also shows that if an election were held today, the UCP would still win—albeit more narrowly—with 44 percent of decided votes compared to 39 percent for the NDP. They say in politics, you frontload the unpopular decisions because that’s when your political capital is highest. What’s remarkable about Smith’s time in office is that she has not had to burn through much of that capital until now. Part of that is structural. The opposition under Naheed Nenshi has struggled to define itself. But part of it is also Smith’s political skill. Even in conflict, she has a way of presenting herself as reasonable, approachable, and genuinely trying to fix something. And she still has time. In politics, time is leverage. She’s got plenty of it.