‘Insanely unpredictable’: From a fresh PM to floor crossings, Hub Politics reacts to the big stories of 2025

In the final episode of Hub Politics in 2025, host Sean Speer is joined by Amanda Galbraith, co-founder and president of Oyster Group, and David Coletto, founder and CEO of Abacus Data, to answer questions from The Hub audience about the big issues over the past 12 months. They discuss Mark Carney’s political rise, the future of the NDP, the opportunities and challenges for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, and the unpredictability that defined 2025’s political landscape. You can listen to this episode on Amazon, Apple, and Spotify. Program Summary This is an automated summary. Please check against delivery. Canadian federal politics has entered a period of extraordinary unpredictability, marked by dramatic party realignments, shifting voter coalitions, and the potential reshaping of the country’s traditional three-party system. The political landscape that seemed settled just months ago has transformed in ways few observers anticipated, creating uncertainty about the direction of governance and opposition in the coming year. The Liberal Party has experienced a remarkable reversal of fortune. After appearing destined for potential third-party status or worse, the party has undergone what some observers describe as a resurrection under new leadership. This dramatic turnaround followed internal upheaval that saw long-serving cabinet ministers publicly challenging the previous government’s direction, particularly regarding its perceived rightward drift on key policy issues. Floor-crossing by members of parliament has emerged as a significant phenomenon, reflecting broader instability within party coalitions. First-term MPs in competitive ridings have proven particularly susceptible to switching allegiances, with the governing party actively courting members from opposition benches. This trend appears likely to continue in the coming months, potentially altering the parliamentary arithmetic in unexpected ways. The New Democratic Party faces a critical juncture as it navigates leadership questions and seeks to define its role in a shifting political environment. The party occupies potentially valuable political space on the left, particularly as other parties have moved rightward on certain issues. However, the NDP must complete its leadership process to effectively capitalize on these opportunities and rebuild its organizational capacity, including fundraising infrastructure that has languished during recent uncertainty. The Conservative Party confronts its own challenges despite maintaining strong electoral support and expanding its appeal among younger voters. Leadership questions loom as internal party dynamics play out, with the most committed party activists set to play a decisive role in upcoming decisions. The party has staked significant political capital on major infrastructure projects while working to maintain its expanded voter coalition. Political leadership in Canada increasingly involves navigating complex moral and diplomatic terrain. The rise of antisemitism and attacks on Jewish communities have tested political courage across party lines, with public opinion research suggesting that taking strong positions on these issues carries political risk. Canada’s international positioning, including decisions regarding Middle East diplomacy, reflects these domestic pressures and raises questions about the country’s traditional role in global affairs. Looking ahead, significant challenges await Canadian governance. Economic headwinds from the United States, potential restructuring of the public service, and complex trade negotiations will test the current government’s capacity and approach. The style and substance of federal leadership remains under scrutiny as Canadians assess whether centralized decision-making meets their expectations for governance.