Abacus Data VP of Insights Eddie Sheppard discusses their latest national poll showing the Conservatives with their first lead over the Liberals since the election, due to winning on the main issues facing Canadians. He also talks about the favourables of Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
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Program Transcript
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SEAN SPEER: Are we seeing a shift in Canadian federal politics? Is Prime Minister Carney’s honeymoon over can Pierre poilievre and the conservatives make a comeback? I’m happy to be joined today by abacus data’s VP of insights, Eddie Shepherd, to answer these questions. Eddie, thanks so much for joining us. Thanks for having me. You. An abacus released a major poll over the weekend that has generated a lot of buzz. Why don’t you? Why don’t we start with the top line numbers, Eddie?
EDDIE SHEPPARD: Yeah. So as we’ve seen right now, you know, it’s a modest but meaningful shift in in the polling. So for the first time in months, we’ve actually witnessed the Conservatives pull ahead of the liberals in terms of committed votes. So right now we see them at 41 for the Conservatives and 39 for the liberals. So a modest shift, but again, the first time we’ve really seen that since before the election. So a meaningful shift, nonetheless.
SEAN SPEER: Are you able to discern from respondents what may be influencing the drop in Liberal support?
EDDIE SHEPPARD: I think there’s a few things we’re seeing right now. So the one, when you look at the top issues facing Canadians since the start of this year, it’s been the cost of living and Trump, and when you reflect in the last election, it was really a battle of those two things, and ultimately, Carney winning out because of his ability, perceived ability, to handle Donald Trump, yes, throughout the course of the summer, you know, in this polling, especially, the importance of Trump as a top issue is receding. So now it’s really in line with those other domestic issues like housing and health care and the overall economy. So we’ve really seen that decline in Trump being the main thing people really wanted Carney to deal with. And now the domestic issues are reasserting themselves, and that’s where we see the Conservatives as really having a strong hold on those issues.
SEAN SPEER: Eddie, one storyline that we’ve been following with you and David and the team at Abacus, really since Election Day is the Liberal party’s diverse base of support under Prime Minister Carney, ranging from traditional Liberal supporters on one end to the New Democrats that they pulled in the last election. Do we have any sense from this poll or any of the other analysis that you’ve that you’ve conducted in recent weeks and months about whether that that coalition is holding, or are there any signs of weakness, particularly on Carney’s left flank, in light of issues like the capital gains tax reduction, in light of some of the compromises he’s made in negotiations with the Trump administration and other instances where one could envision progressive voters breaking with the prime minister?
EDDIE SHEPPARD: Yeah, I think right now, what we’re seeing is the support that both Poilievre and Carney had in the last election is held for the most part. The challenge for Carney is that the Conservatives are holding it much better than he is. So when you look at those who voted Conservative in this election, 93% still support the Conservative Party. When you look at Liberal, 86% still support the Liberal Party. So you see that the conservatives that may help explain their lead right now, as well as because of the fact that they’re they’re doing a better job at holding on to that supports that they gained. And when you know that the coalition was formed, as you said, you know the liberal coalition is much more diverse than it really has been before in recent years. And I think that is going to be a hard thing for the liberals, is they need to maintain that very diverse coalition. And if they, you know, if they can’t do that, if Trump proceeds as an issue and those other things come to the forefront, like housing and cost of living and the economy, it may continue to advantage the Conservatives coalition in that sense, because they still are viewed as the party to best handle largely all those domestic issues. So I think the support is still there. The support for the Carney government is still high, but it’s, it’s the honeymoon isn’t over, but there’s conditions attached to it now. People need to see change.
SEAN SPEER: Yeah, what did Ronald Reagan say? Trust, but verified? Let’s, let’s drill down a bit more to the numbers, because similarly, we’ve we’ve talked to you and David a lot since the election about some of the interesting developments below the top line numbers, particularly along an age spectrum as well as a gender one. What do you find in your latest polling in regards to those two key demographic characteristics?
EDDIE SHEPPARD: Yeah. So when it comes to kind of on the forefront both, age. The Conservatives and Liberals are almost largely tied across all age demographics. So whether it be 18 and 29 or 60 and over, the support for Conservatives and Liberals is statistically tied. So we actually have witnessed that the age gap essentially be removed. And I think that’s important to know, because when you look at the younger demographic, they’re the ones who are more likely to vote Conservative, and they’re the ones who are more likely to have issues with housing and cost of living and job security and stability. And when you look at the issues facing Canadians right now, again, as the Conservatives being seen as the best party to handle those, that really puts the Conservatives in the lead when it comes to the issues most important to that demographic. But I think right now, it’s interesting to note that there is no age split when it comes to gender. We still see the same split and that men are more likely to lean Conservative, women are more likely to lean liberal. So that gap does still exist, but I think the age difference is a really interesting one in that it could really be advantageous for one party or the other, depending on the issues most salient at the time for those people.
SEAN SPEER: I asked about gender, and you mentioned that we still see something of a gender divide as a way to understand and define our politics. You and the team at abacus released some really interesting analysis recently, independent of the poll we’re talking about that looked at at this, the state of economic expectations and and kind of social relationships among young men. Do you want to talk a bit about that analysis Eddie, and why you think it’s significant and, and something of note for for policymakers?
EDDIE SHEPPARD: Yeah, I think, you know, we recently released some some stuff around, actually, this precarity mindset idea, which I know David has spoken to before. But you know, the precarity mindset, being the idea that the ground below us feels incredibly unstable right now, and that the rug can be pulled out at any point in time. And I think when you look at that, people are looking for reassurance and certainty and that credibility to kind of weather the storm as it goes. What we see when it comes to that, though, is women experience far higher levels of precarity than men do. So I think this really shows that, you know, women remain kind of the most vulnerable when it comes to that sense of the feeling of instability and uncertainty and insecurity. And I think that that’s a really important thing to note, because we’re seeing that the more precarious you are, the more likely you are to vote Liberal.
So that’s where we see that gender divide, right? There is that women, being feeling the most precarity, are more likely to vote on the liberal side. When you look at the the male side of things, you know there’s that notion that there that many young men, to degree, feel as though they’ve lost their place, and that’s their voice isn’t being heard, that their their job security and stability is not what it used to be. So I think we’re seeing them speak out and look for someone, and right now they’re leading more towards polyev. Look for someone who has that that that bold change and that vision to to, you know, reform policies and to make those shifts. So I think right now, on both sides, you know, when you look at women, they’re looking for stability and certainty and really predictability because of that precarity mindset. When you look at men, they’re young men in particular. They’re looking for someone who can hear their voice, someone that they connect with, and someone that can promise change and reform.
SEAN SPEER: Let’s just stay on that point for a second Eddie, because it resonates a great deal with me, and it’s clear that Poilievre has built a connection with some of those young men, many of whom he’s pulled into the political process that may not even have participated in the past. He’s done that by accentuating different issues, by the way he presents himself, there’s a kind of degree of underlying masculinity to polyev, and I would argue conservative politics and other parts of of the world that, you know, there’s been a lot of commentary, for instance, about the extent to which the Trump administration had a kind of hyper masculinity to it, and that, juxtaposed with the with Kamala Harris’s campaign, is there a risk Eddie that, that those efforts to reach those young men are the same ones that that turn off female voters? Is there, in other words, is there a way to kind of square the circle?
EDDIE SHEPPARD: Yeah, I think when you look at the last election that really played out, right, when you look at the comparisons and the connections that the liberals were making between Poilievre and Trump and showing that the more, I guess, more combative and confrontational approach to politics, you know, I think that’s where it pushed people away at that point in time, because really what people needed then was stability. They didn’t want drastic and bold change. They wanted to make sure that things would be the same as they were months from now or a year from now. Now that you look back on that, you know, Trump is still an issue, tariffs are still an issue, housing, healthcare, affordability, those are all still issues. So that’s stability that people were looking for. You know, unless results are shown, the floor is going to drop for the support that we’re seeing right now.
But when you look at the Poilievre upside, I think we’ve seen a bit of a softening in tone throughout the summer. So they’re really interesting to see when the House returns, what approach he takes. Because, as you said, you know, the approach, I guess, turned off some people with that more confrontational style. But I think going in, he’s he has this new tone around working together and making sure it’s the best thing for Canadians, and then having more of that, I guess, collaborative perspective right now. So it’s gonna be interesting to see what tone he takes when he returns to the house in the fall, because I think part of that you know, if he’s able to soften the negatives that people who didn’t support him saw, that can really play in his favour, because then he’ll be seen as a leader that’s more universally liked, a leader that has the ability to manage the issues most facing Canadians right now, and someone who can deliver that change. So it’s gonna be really interesting to see how that plays out.
SEAN SPEER: Final question, Eddie, looking ahead to parliament’s return in a few weeks, what will you see as key milestones or benchmarks to assess whether this new pool that you released at Abacus Data has some durability, if I can put it that way?
EDDIE SHEPPARD: I think the main thing is looking at the issue salience. So when, when you think again as as the Trump issue, kind of receding people have that, that valence issue dynamic. So basically, voters prioritise performance on that top issue for the longest time this year, the top issue largely was Trump now with cost of living, which is made up significantly by housing concerns. Housing is an issue, healthcare is an issue, if those topics re emerge and reassert themselves as those top issues facing Canadians. Then I think it’s me interesting to see how the liberal governments can shift from that Trump focused mindset to looking at how to reassert themselves as the best party to handle those domestic challenges. And I think as of right now, you can see that they’re they’re behind on that already, so they have to make up ground. So I think when we return to house, when Parliament returns, I think it’s going to be interesting to see how the Liberals deal with those, because I’m sure the Conservatives are going to go after that side of things, because that’s what really has been lagging in terms of what the Liberals have done so far this summer. So I think when you look at that, how they are able to handle those and navigate their way through those challenges, I think will be really important, because voters are going to prioritise performance on those issues. I think coming forward.
SEAN SPEER: Great insights. Eddie, we’ll have to have you back on the programme as Parliament returns to continue to assess and track these big developments. Eddie shepherd the VP of insights at Abacus Data. Thank you so much for joining us at hub.
EDDIE SHEPPARD: Thank you very much.
