In this episode of Trump Trade War, The Hub’s publisher Rudyard Griffiths speaks with Darrell Bricker, the CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, to discuss how Trump’s tariffs are currently defining the Canadian federal election.
To read Darrell’s full analysis, click here.
Key points:
- Overwhelming demand for a federal election: An unprecedented 86 percent of Canadians believe an immediate federal election is necessary. This surge in demand reflects a desire for strong national leadership in the face of the ongoing trade crisis. Canadians want a prime minister to lead negotiations with the U.S., rather than relying on provincial premiers.
- Liberal Party gains momentum: For the first time in recent tracking, the Liberal Party has pulled ahead of the Conservatives in terms of voter intentions. Bricker attributes this shift to the recent leadership convention, which typically gives a party a temporary boost. However, he pointed out that this bump is unusually large, suggesting deeper changes in public sentiment.
- Complex perceptions of leadership: The poll reveals a nuanced view of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. While 28 percent of Canadians see him as a tough negotiator, there is also a perception that he might be too willing to concede to President Trump’s demands. On the other hand, Liberal leader Mark Carney is seen as more patriotic and motivated, but his skills are not necessarily viewed as superior to Poilievre’s.
As the Trump administration’s trade war with Canada enters its 26th day, the political landscape in Canada is undergoing significant changes. A recent Ipsos poll, led by Bricker, reveals that 86 percent of Canadians are calling for an immediate federal election, reflecting growing concerns over how the current government is handling the escalating trade tensions with the United States. Bricker noted, “To get 86 percent of Canadians to agree on anything is a very hard thing to do.” The poll also highlights shifting voter intentions and complex perceptions of the two leading political figures, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal leader Mark Carney.
Bricker emphasized that the media narrative surrounding the leadership qualities of Poilievre and Carney does not fully align with public opinion. While Carney is often portrayed as the more experienced and skilled leader, the poll suggests that Canadians are more concerned with the motivations and values of their leaders rather than their resumes. “[Carney has] got that new car smell about him. And I think that’s what’s appealing to people. They’re interested in just saying, hey, let’s take this for a test drive,” Bricker said, referring to public opinion of Carney.
The poll also highlights a disconnect between media portrayals and public perceptions. Bricker noted that while Carney is often touted as the more experienced candidate, the public does not necessarily view him as superior to Poilievre in terms of skill. Instead, the focus is on what motivates each leader. “It’s really motivations, yeah, it’s values. It’s not these objective skills,” Bricker said.
As the trade war continues to unfold, the political stakes in Canada are higher than ever. With the federal election looming, the ability of the next leader to navigate these turbulent waters will be crucial. Bricker’s insights suggest that while the Liberals may be gaining ground, the race is far from decided. The public’s focus on leadership motivations and values indicates that the upcoming election will be as much about character as it is about policy.
Generative AI assisted in the production of this story. If you are quoting from or referencing this episode, please refer to the audio to verify.
