What should we expect from President Joe Biden’s first presidential trip to Ottawa? What issues will dominate the discussions? And are there likely to be any unexpected surprises coming out of the talks? For some insight on how this visit might go, The Hub’s editor-at-large Sean Speer spoke with Derek Burney, chief of staff to former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and Canada’s former ambassador to the United States from 1989 to 1993.
Unwelcome surprises
SEAN SPEER: As someone who has been involved in various bilateral meetings between U.S. presidents and Canadian prime ministers over the years, what kind of preparation goes into the topics and deliverables for the visit? How much of it is essentially baked between the two leaders even meet? Is there typically any room for spontaneity or adjustments on the fly?
DEREK BURNEY: Yes, especially when the two leaders are on similar wavelengths on issues and the communication channels are open and trusted. There is usually much advance preparation, primarily to negotiate and craft the main lines of a communique, leaving a few issues for the leaders to settle. This advance prep is intended primarily to prevent unwelcome surprises and to avoid matters going “off the rails” as they did on occasion with President Trump. I suspect this is the reason a senior PMO official was in Washington about ten days ago and why our ambassador, Kirsten Hillman, was recently in Ottawa.
That does not mean there is no room for spontaneity, but it does clear a lot of the underbrush so that the leaders can focus on what they regard as acute priorities—both North American and global.
Borders, security, and Buy America
SEAN SPEER: Polling tells us that the Canadian public was massively in favour of Joe Biden over Donald Trump during the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Yet on a number of files, the Biden Administration hasn’t necessarily been a great friend to Canada. What do you think is behind that? Is it merely domestic politics or is it something deeper?
DEREK BURNEY: That is true. Despite their shared views on climate change, Ukraine, and many woke fads of the moment, there is little evidence of tangible bilateral achievements with the Biden Administration. On the contrary, mind you, the president does have a full plate of domestic and global challenges that merit his attention. Issues with Canada do not seem to command much of a priority.
Getting attention in Washington and avoiding being “taken for granted” by Washington are always challenges for Canada. I suspect the president is more focused and concerned about immediate problems at his southern border than on problems with Canada, as he should be.
It is disappointing, however, that, when those problems—a huge influx of asylum-seekers—spill over into Canada, we do not get a constructive response. The Americans have seemed reluctant to discuss strengthening the Safe Third Country agreement.
Protectionism under Biden—Buy American on steroids and massive trade-distorting subsidies for green energy—are very troublesome for Canada. They are, of course, highly political, especially when Biden has leaned heavily on the progressive wing of his party for support and is facing “America First” challenges from many Republicans.
But Canada’s distinct lack of commitment on security issues does not help with a partner who is embroiled in major security threats—the intensifying Russia –China axis being the most prominent.
Canada’s Indo-Pacific irrelevance
SEAN SPEER: At a time in which there’s a growing consensus in Washington that U.S. policy vis-a-vis China must replace its past strategy of engagement with something firmer and more hawkish, how much does a perception of Canada as soft and unreliable on China affect bilateral relations between Canada and the United States? What, if anything, should the Trudeau government be doing to establish that it’s a partner in a new approach to China?
DEREK BURNEY: Canada has not really recovered from the “Two Michaels” fiasco with Beijing. The clumsy response to allegations about Chinese interference in our elections only exacerbates matters. The threat from the China–Russia axis is extremely serious. We should encourage the U.S. to take a stronger stance on this, but the depleted state of our own military and our limp contribution to alliance intelligence do not enhance our credibility. We have been overshadowed on security by our Commonwealth cousin Australia—the AUKUS alliance in the Indo-Pacific region is a case in point. Canada is no longer relevant.
Energy and the environment
SEAN SPEER: There’s been a lot of talk in Ottawa about the need to match the Americans on the generous incentives for clean technology investments in the Inflation Reduction Act. As an alternative, is there any scope for a bilateral partnership on energy and the environment? If so, what might it look like? If not, what do you think stands in its way?
DEREK BURNEY: We can never match the Americans on the subsidies game, as even Chrystia Freeland has acknowledged. We can only work closely with Japan and key Europeans to challenge the trade-distorting impact of these subsidies.
There is great potential for bilateral cooperation with the U.S. on energy, and North American energy independence should be a shared objective. But is there the will in Canada? With an eye on 2024, Biden is already tacking slightly to the centre on energy with his approval of the huge Willow Project in Alaska.
I see no evidence of the Trudeau administration adopting a similarly pragmatic approach to energy. They are mesmerized exclusively by climate change—a position that does little for either our economic prospects or national unity.
Managing expectations
SEAN SPEER: What will you be looking for coming out of the president’s visit? What do you anticipate?
DEREK BURNEY: Not much, my expectations are well under control. I would be delighted to be proven wrong. Nonetheless, it will be touted as a success by both parties and that enthusiasm will last about 24 hours.