In the lead-up to the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, The Hub and Pollara are teaming up to provide insights into what Canadians make of the race as it unfolds. Pollara senior advisor Andre Turcotte will provide exclusive polling and analysis to Hub readers, helping them understand how fellow Canadians are making sense of the election and its implications for Canada.
On March 25th, 1969, Prime Minister Pierre-Elliott Trudeau spoke to the National Press Club in Washington and compared Canada’s relationship with the United States to, “sleeping with an elephant.”
“Living next to you is in some ways like sleeping with an elephant. No matter how friendly and even-tempered is the beast…one is affected by every twitch and grunt.” One cannot help wondering what the late prime minister would say if he knew that “the beast” may soon be led again by Donald Trump.
While the U.S. presidential election is still seven months away, we are getting ready to witness a Biden-Trump rematch and many are bracing themselves for a second Trump presidency. While experts and pundits are expressing a wide range of opinions about what a Trump return to the White House could mean, our research shows a strong majority of Canadians feel this scenario would be “a bad thing for Canada.”
Since January, Pollara Strategic Insights has been monitoring Canadians’ interest and attitudes toward the upcoming U.S. election. From the beginning, we found that about 60 percent of Canadians are paying some attention to the contest. Under 20 percent of Canadians would like to see Trump re-elected.
In our most recent study—conducted from March 15-22, with more than 1,500 Canadian adults—we went one step further and explored what Canadians believe the impact of a second Trump presidency on Canada would be. The results? In short, Canadians are expecting the worst.
Do Canadians want President Trump 2.0?
We began our analysis by asking Canadians whether the election of Donald Trump as president would be “a good or a bad thing for Canada.” Some 62 percent believe it would be a bad thing for the country while 13 percent see it as a good thing. Twenty-five percent are unsure. Older Canadians (81 percent), Quebecers (76 percent), and women (66 percent) are the most pessimistic about the prospect of a Trump victory. This state of negativity is the result of what Canadians expect a second Trump administration would carry out.
Most Canadians believe that if he was re-elected, Trump would implement the following policies. Sixty-one percent say he would cut aid to Ukraine, with 57 percent saying he would insist Canada increase its military spending to meet its NATO commitment.
On the topic of trade, a plurality of Canadians (47 percent) think a new Trump administration would renegotiate the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA). Fifty-eight percent of Canadians say he’d impose new tariffs on Canadian exports.
More than half (55 percent) of our fellow citizens say Trump will restrict immigration to the U.S. from Canada’s border.
Another 45 percent expect a decrease in financial support for building electric vehicles; a sector in which Canada in general, but Quebec and Ontario in particular, have invested billions in.
These negative expectations go even further. First, Canadians fear Trump would have a detrimental effect on the international stage. Some 55 percent of Canadians believe the election of Donald Trump would have a negative impact on the future of the United Nations, while 51 percent feel he would harm the future of NATO.
Canadians are also worried about his impact on the Canadian economy. In specific terms, 52 percent think Trump’s re-election would negatively impact the free flow of goods and services between Canada and the U.S.; 48 percent suggest Canada’s agricultural sector would also suffer, and another 47 percent feel it would negatively impact the value of the Canadian dollar.
Pessimism also prevails around human rights issues. Fifty-one percent of Canadians feel that if Donald Trump returns to the White House, this would have a negative impact on the protection of LGBTQ rights in Canada and 45 percent think it would jeopardize the protection of the reproductive rights of Canadian women. Moreover, a plurality of Canadians also fear Trump would have a negative impact on the protection of Muslim communities in Canada (43 percent). Thirty-six percent of Canadians believe he’d have a negative impact on the protection of Jewish Canadians.
Given this climate of opinion, it is not surprising that if Canadians could vote, Biden would win in a landslide, with 61 percent wanting him to be victorious, compared to 18 percent for Trump.
Should Canadian politicians care about the pervasive Canadian aversion around a Trump victory? In the event that Donald Trump is sworn in on January 20th, 2025, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will have to navigate a difficult relationship with our still most important ally. Canadians will be apprehensive and will be looking for either reassurance or protection from the prime minister. How Justin Trudeau handles the “twitch and grunt from the beast” will likely have repercussions on his re-election prospects.
Next week: what do Canadian conservatives think about the U.S. election, Trump, and Biden?
