The sunken ship of the BC United Party has at last sent out its mayday call, already on the rocks of the shore. The Conservative Party of British Columbia might salvage some aboard and leave the rest at sea.
A staggering shift in British Columbian politics over the last year was formally recognized Wednesday. BC United, the renamed BC Liberal Party, is shuttering shop—temporarily at least, permanently if the plan works—so the Right can unite and form a formidable threat to the BC NDP on the eve of an election campaign and an October 19 vote.
BC United leader Kevin Falcon, only two years ago, booted John Rustad from the party for departing from policy on climate change. And how the climate has since changed: Rustad joined the fringe Conservatives, became leader, and stewarded a startling ascent from about 4 to now about 40 percent in the polls, in a statistical tie with David Eby’s NDP.
Combined, the two right-of-centre parties’ support was larger than that of the government. While not all of the BC United following will follow Rustad, it is fair to say today that it is now his election to lose.
Falcon’s return to politics in 2022 has been nothing but a tire fire. His determination to boot hard-Right conservatives from the party inadvertently fueled Rustad’s rise and his own demise. His decision to rename the party went over like New Coke. He couldn’t put sufficient cleavage between his centrist policies and those of the ruling party. He was carrying baggage from the BC Liberals. Donors were voting in advance with their wallets. Polls suggested people just didn’t get him.
Rustad was perceived as the red-meat change agent, Falcon was milquetoast comparably, and public opinion steadily showed that. As he folded the tent Wednesday, the man who only two years ago was expected to be the next premier was running a faltering party in single digits. It’s a long way for a party that has ruled B.C. for two-thirds of this century under Gordon Campbell and Christy Clark.
By last weekend, Falcon had heard enough from enough to realize he was putting personal pride over the political principles of defeating the dreaded NDP. Aides started a two-party conversation, which then led to a two-leader discussion Monday into early Tuesday. It is possible Falcon has wasted valuable currency in waiting so long to succumb to the many entreaties to make the tent-folding seismic in its effect. Much of the apparatus of his party has already come over to Rustad’s realm. A few MLAs fled, too, so it’s harder to see the clear-cut benefits of unification this late in the game. As we say in journalism, time will tell.
Technically, the BC United is in that Monty Python bring-out-your-dead scene, when someone utters: “I’m not dead yet.” Falcon, even with pretty serious powers as its leader, can’t dissolve the party. But a suspended campaign suggests a post-election dissolution is certain if Rustad wins. If he loses, well, there remains the opportunity to fight another day.
At the very least it now gives Rustad a path to sell his wares to the province without an ankle-biter like Falcon impeding his trek. Rustad’s rise has been swift, but he is still relatively unknown as the campaign beckons. Even so, his agenda fits snugly with the one-half of the province that tells pollsters they’re fatigued with the spendthrift Eby regime. They want an attack on unaffordability and an agenda for growth, and they find this government utterly lacking in a plan on the former that doesn’t drain the treasury—as for the latter, forget about it.
An early-day Conservative government would kill the province’s carbon tax (the first in the country, created under a government with Rustad at the cabinet table), unleash resource development, create competition for vehicle insurance, and expand choices for health-care and childcare. It would roll out policies to reduce the scope of government, prune taxes, and pursue a balanced budget in its first mandate. It would attempt to change an emphasis on wealth redistribution into one that enables wealth creation.
Details will follow. Lots of them. Remember, this is a party that hasn’t elected an MLA in 120 years. The party is intoxicated, but not blotto, from its poll successes. How far has it come? Rustad wasn’t even convinced he should run again when he was turfed by Falcon. Yet here he is, the premier-in-waiting.
Several efforts over the last year failed to reconcile the two parties, in part because the two leaders had so bitterly split (Falcon fired Rustad on his birthday two years ago this month, and I think we’d all file that gesture away for future considerations).
They bit their lips and watched their tongues in reconciling momentarily Wednesday. The “most difficult decision in my life” for Falcon also meant generously and graciously telling Rustad that “on your very worst day you’ll be better than David Eby on his best day.” Rustad is playing his cards carefully, not committing to taking even one MLA into the fold, but it would be reasonable to expect a handful would serve as aligned on policy and assets politically. I still wouldn’t bet on the two of them vacationing together.
BC United Leader, Kevin Falcon speaks during a news conference in Surrey, B.C. on Wednesday, June 26, 2024. Ethan Cairns/The Canadian Press.
Eby, for his part, said it’s the “same guys doing the same things they did as BC Liberals. . . they want to cut, cut, cut as we need to build, build, build.” His mantra of the moment about Rustad: “He’s a risk we can’t afford.” And he knows about spending money.
Rustad’s regular rejoinder is that Eby’s public finances are shambolic and the province’s economy is slipping under the stewardship of the NDP. For every private-sector job created in recent years, five public-sector jobs have been created. And yet, hospital emergency units close regularly, wait times are ridiculous, an opioid crisis is worsening, homelessness in the major cities is growing, street crime is a concern, the housing crisis is so bad the province is bullying municipalities into changing the contours of neighbourhoods against their will, and there is no prosperity plan to be found. The NDP will run on its record; the Conservatives will create a platform, and yes, as one might expect, it will roam into slightly more centrist territory.
It is true that the Conservatives have had their hands full with eccentric candidates who prove to be easy social media targets, and their riding nominees are mainly newbies to the game. If a handful of BC United MLAs and candidates are brought into the Conservative fold, it will be the political equivalent of sports teams acquiring players at the trade deadline—the final pieces aimed to secure the championship.
Where the BC United votes go now is decisive. Most likely, pollster Greg Lyle of Innovative Research says, 40 percent go to the Conservatives, 20 percent to the NDP, and 40 percent are still figuring it out. The net is about 3 percentage points for Rustad’s party, which does not yet yield regime change. More must be earned in the next seven-plus weeks.
Falcon, the official Opposition leader, will not run now. Rustad, who has eyes on a bigger prize, will run the show from here. No one, not even the Conservative leader, would have predicted any of this on his 2022 birthday when it was a reasonable assumption his public life—and not that of the person firing him—would be first to come to an end.
Kirk LaPointe is The Hub's B.C. Correspondent. He is a transplanted Ontarian to British Columbia. Before he left, he ran CTV News, Southam…
