In each EconMinute, Business Council of Alberta economist Alicia Planincic seeks to better understand the economic issues that matter to Canadians: from business competitiveness to housing affordability to living standards and our country’s lack of productivity growth. She strives to answer burning questions, tackle misconceptions, and uncover what’s really going on in the Canadian economy.
Immigration isn’t just about attracting the best to Canada; it’s also about ensuring they choose to stay.
Last spring, Statistics Canada released a report on the emigration of immigrants (that is, immigrants to Canada who end up leaving the country). Widely publicized at the time was the seemingly large number of immigrants who did so over the time period studied (1982-2017). But there’s another big finding from the report: the people most likely to leave are those who offer the greatest potential value to the Canadian economy. While immigrants may not choose to leave right away, the results over 20 years are striking.
Individuals with high incomes and education levels are among the most likely to leave Canada after immigrating here. Specifically, immigrants who have a doctorate (PhD) upon arrival have a one in three chance of leaving within 20 years, while those with a master’s degree have a 29 percent chance of emigration.
Graphic credit: Janice Nelson.
Altogether, the most highly educated immigrants are about twice as likely to leave Canada as those with a high school education or less. Individuals with a bachelor’s degree are more likely to stay than those with advanced degrees, but there’s still a one in five chance they’ll leave within two decades.
What’s more, individuals selected for their ability to start or grow a Canadian business are also likely to leave. In fact, investors who immigrated to Canada are the most likely of any group to end up leaving (more than 40 percent within 20 years). And entrepreneurs are not far behind (nearly 30 percent).
Finally, it’s also important to note that when immigrants end up leaving, Canada is likely to lose out on future talent as well. Both immigrants admitted as children, and Canadian-born children of immigrants, tend to have higher levels of education in valuable fields, and higher median incomes at 25-years-old and up. In other words, if their parents leave Canada they take another generation of potential economic value with them.
All that said, there’s still a lot we don’t know. This report doesn’t tell us if retention of skilled immigrant groups has gotten better or worse over time; or how it compares with other countries. We do know, however, that economic opportunity is a large driver of the decision to emigrate. Immigrants follow opportunity, and those who can leave will do so if they find better opportunities abroad.
A version of this post was originally published by the Business Council of Alberta at businesscouncilab.com.
Alicia Planincic is the Director of Policy & Economics at the Business Council of Alberta. She regularly provides insight and analysis on the Canadian economy, public finances, labour markets, equity and social mobility, and public policy.
