This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
Young people are Canada’s largest conservative demographic
Source: Abacus Data
Fifty percent of Canadian voters between the ages of 18 and 29 are voting for Right-leaning parties, including the Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre, and the People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier. This indicates that young Canadians could now be the most conservative age demographic in the country.
For many years, it was widely held that Left-wing parties, like the federal NDP, gained the biggest boost from young voters. Many point to young Canadians as the reason for Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s majority government win in 2015. This narrative is seemingly bound to change come election time, as the youth vote could lead the CPC to the majority government they are polled to receive. That is, if young people actually vote. They don’t have the best track record.
Two-thirds of Canadian immigrants want stricter international student policies
Source: OMNI News & Leger
Two-thirds of immigrants to Canada say that they want stricter policies on the intake of international university and college students into Canada. This includes policies already in place as well as the federal government’s proposed changes.
The number of international students with active study permits in Canada rose to over 1 million in 2023, a 29 percent increase from 2022. Immigration Minister Marc Miller set a study permit target for 2025 and 2026 of 437,000 administered permits. In 2024, the target was 485,000. Miller also will set new limits on work permits for the spouses of international students in master’s degree programs.
Some experts see the large number of international students in Canada as a driving force behind the Canadian housing affordability crisis.
The Liberal Party’s voter base is now a mere 7 percent of Canadians
Source: David Coletto & Abacus Data for The Hub
Currently, 24 percent of Canadians identify as Liberal, 37 percent as Conservative, and 14 percent as New Democrat. However, the core voter base of each party—voters who identify with a party and are committed to voting exclusively for that party—tells a different story.
According to an exclusive piece that Abacus Data CEO David Coletto wrote for The Hub this week, the Liberal core voter base is now only 7 percent of Canadians, compared to 20 percent for the Conservatives, and 3 percent for the NDP.
Coletto points out that the Liberal core voter base in 2024 remains unchanged from 2015, despite nine years in power and three election wins. Over the same period, however, the Conservative base has expanded from 13 percent in 2015 to 20 percent today.
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He has served as The Hub's Assistant Editor and writes The Week in Polling. He has also worked as an intern for Conservative Member of Parliament and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Michael Chong.
