This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
The Liberals and NDP are tied for the first time in nearly a decade
Source: Abacus Data
The Liberals have missed out on a “Trump bump” as—for the first time in Abacus Data’s polling since they were elected in 2015—the federal Liberals and NDP are tied for second place at 21 percent, both behind the Conservatives at 43 percent.
Outside of voters from Quebec, the NDP are ahead of the Liberals by two percent, at 23 and 21 percent respectively. The Conservatives also jump to 48 percent.
Only 15 percent of committed millennial voters say they will vote for the Liberals, which is Abacus Data’s lowest measurement of Liberal support among that generation to date.
Fifty-four percent of Canadians anticipate that the Conservatives will win the next election. Since January 2024, expectations of a Conservative victory have risen by 11 percent. Just over 15 percent of Canadians expect a Liberal victory.
Canadians are twice as likely to report being worse off financially than better off, compared to last year
Source: Nanos
Canadians are twice as likely to report their finances have worsened rather than improved over the past year, with more than one-third saying their financial situation remains unchanged.
Nearly 50 percent of Canadians between the ages of 18 and 34 say they are worse off financially this year than in 2023.
Not a single province in Canada had more than 24 percent of residents reporting they were better off financially than last year. Ontarians ended up being the best off, with 23.8 percent of respondents claiming more financial success this year than last.
Women are more likely than men to report being in a worse financial position in 2024 than 2023, with 42 percent of women saying they were worse off this year, compared to 39 percent of men.
A majority of Ukrainians want the war with Russia to end as soon as possible
Source: Gallup
As we passed the 1000th day of war between Russia and Ukraine this week, 52 percent of Ukrainians report wanting the war to end through negotiation as soon as possible. Just under 40 percent want Ukraine to keep fighting until it wins.
More than 50 percent of Ukrainians now believe that making territorial concessions is acceptable if it means ending the bloodshed.
These numbers mark a distinct change in Ukrainians’ sentiment. In October 2023, 63 percent of Ukrainians believed they should keep fighting, while 27 percent wanted negotiations to stop the battle.
Since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion in 2022, some 1 million people have been killed or wounded overall.
This week, Ukrainian officials claimed that their city of Dnipro was hit with a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile. If this is confirmed, it would be the first time such a weapon has been used in war.
Last week, President Biden authorized Ukraine, for the first time, to use its long-range missiles to strike inside Russia. Meanwhile, Russia has deployed North Korean soldiers to fight alongside its troops. Ukraine’s former military commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny said that he believes “…[T]hat in 2024, we can absolutely believe that the Third World War has begun.”
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He has served as The Hub's Assistant…
