It’s that time of year to bring back one of The Hub’s favourite traditions: giving our readers a head’s up on what they can expect in the year to come. As for how well our contributor’s crystal balls work, well, check out last year’s predictions and judge for yourself. Looking ahead, here are some can’t-miss predictions for 2025.
Trudeau will finally flounder and Trump will tower over all
By Élie Cantin-Nantel, The Hub’s Ottawa correspondent
1. Trudeau’s reign will come to an end.
2025 will mark the end of Justin Trudeau’s time as prime minister. It’s inevitable. Polling aggregator 338Canada puts Trudeau’s re-election chances below 1 percent. An Abacus poll found 86 percent of Canadians want change, and just 12 percent say the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. And the last prime minister to win a fourth consecutive term was Sir Wilfrid Laurier.
Hence the question is not if, but how and when.
Trudeau is unlikely to resign before the election. He has a narcissistic mindset. He also has a fighter’s mindset (remember that he’s an amateur boxer). And he loathes Pierre Poilievre. To quit before the next election would be a pre-concession to his nemesis, Poilievre, whose political philosophy is the polar opposite of Trudeau’s. That’s not what a fighter does, and Trudeau will want to be remembered as someone who went down with a fight.
As for when, the election will most likely take place in the spring.
2. Donald Trump will unleash his MAGA agenda, both domestically and internationally.
2025 will also mark Donald Trump’s return to the White House, where he will swiftly enact his agenda. He will take action on his plans to mass deport illegal immigrants and resume construction of a wall on the southern border. He will also seek to enact new fiscal measures and unleash American energy. His administration will also tackle controversial cultural issues, including gender issues.
On the global stage, Trump will go ahead with his “peace through strength” approach and attempt to end the war in Ukraine through diplomatic means and deal with the situation in the Middle East. Trump will also challenge international trade and defence status quos, including free trade deals as well as NATO and the Paris Accord, agreements he says are a disadvantage to the United States.
Like in 2017, Trump will face intense resistance from Democrats and the legacy media industrial complex. However, the media’s impact will be less pronounced this time, amidst their declining viewership and the rise of independent outlets.
As for the impacts of Trump on Canada, I foresee difficulties under Trudeau. However, relations should improve if Pierre Poilieve becomes prime minister.
The construction of new housing in Markham, Ontario, is set against the sun, on Wednesday, October 16, 2024. Chris Young/The Canadian Press.
Ontarians will mistakenly believe the housing crisis is getting better
By Mike Moffatt, founding director of the PLACE Centre and co-host of the podcast The Missing Middle
Thanks to a slowing economy and a declining population of non-permanent residents, rents on new leases in Ontario fell 6 percent this year, while single-family home prices have stayed flat. Slow economic growth and lower immigration will prevent prices from rising in 2025, and with interest rates falling, it will appear that Ontario is turning a corner when it comes to housing affordability.
Such optimism is unwarranted. Even with lower immigration targets and reduced international student enrollment, Ontario’s population is continuing to grow above historic averages, and our cities have the highest proportion of adults under the age of 35 living with their parents anywhere in Canada. Although this demand is currently on the sidelines, eventually, they will want to rent or buy homes of their own. However, housing starts in Ontario are falling and will likely continue to fall due to the evaporation of the pre-construction condo market. There is unlikely to be the inventory available for them to buy, which could send prices through the stratosphere.
In short, home prices and rents are likely to be flat or fall in 2025. But we may be setting ourselves up for a substantial price spike near the end of the decade. I hope our policymakers recognize that, but I fear they don’t.
