This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
Poilievre and Carney are nearly equally trusted to manage U.S. relations and defend against Trump
Source: Leger
When asked who they trust most to manage relations with our neighbour to the south and defend our interests against President Trump, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre and Liberal Party leadership hopeful Mark Carney are nearly tied at 22 and 20 percent, respectively. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau follow at 9 percent each. They are ahead of former deputy prime minister and Liberal leadership candidate Chrystia Freeland, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.
“[Canada] will never be the 51st state,” said Poilievre at his Canada First rally last weekend in Ottawa. “[Canadians] will bear any burden and pay any price to protect the sovereignty and independence of our country.” Later in the rally, Poilievre pointed out that Canadian legacy media had been repeating the narrative that he should completely alter his policy platform and message because of Trump’s tariff threat. He vehemently disagreed with their advice.
“The Trump tariff threats have proven Conservatives right on everything,” said Poilievre during his remarks. “Conservatives were right on the Liberal capital gains tax hike and the carbon tax, on pipelines, on LNG, on fentanyl, the border, immigration, and the need to celebrate rather than cancel our proud history and country.”
In an interview on the CBC, when asked about his plan to combat Trump’s tariffs, Carney said, “We can’t control Trump, but we can control what we do here at home to reinforce our economy.” He explained that his plan involved middle-class tax cuts, investing in infrastructure, building new trade routes, and having one Canadian economy instead of thirteen.
The Liberals cut the Conservatives’ lead, but pollsters disagree by how much
Source: 338Canada, Abacus Data and Angus Reid
As Carney increases his lead from the rest of the Liberal leadership pack, pollsters have been gauging his chances in a federal election, with the former banker taking the place of Trudeau. Carney has appeared to breathe life into the Liberal party, though polls show varying results when it comes to the degree of the Liberal resurgence. For instance, Abacus Data’s most recent poll has the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by 20 percent, while Angus Reid’s most recent poll has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by only 3 percent.
Leger, Canada’s most accurate pollster in the last federal election, has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by only 8 percent. In a poll conducted in early December, just before Trudeau’s resignation and the prorogation of Parliament, they showed the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 22 percent, occupying 43 percent of the Canadian voter share to the Liberals’ 21.
Almost all of the other pollsters in the above chart displayed a similar lead at the time, which has now been cut to less than 10 percent. Abacus Data and Innovative Research are the only pollsters that show a Conservative lead above 10 percent.
Abacus Data’s CEO David Coletto wrote on his Substack page Infocus that while Liberals have gained seven points in the last month, most of it has come at the NDP’s expense. Earlier this month, Abacus Data ran two national polls in the same week to confirm the shift in voter intention and found a “genuine uptick in Liberal support” that he suggests is primarily from “NDP supporters who might be feeling more urgency around issues such as Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats and talk of Canada joining the United States.”
More than 85 percent of Canadians are worried the economy will get worse in the next six months
Source: Leger
Eighty-six percent of Canadians are worried about the economy worsening. Many say they are already feeling the impact of rising costs, particularly when it comes to fresh fruits and vegetables (72 percent) and pre-packaged goods (67 percent). Grocery price concerns are highest in Quebec (76 percent), while worries over gasoline prices are most pronounced in British Columbia (78 percent) and the Prairies (69 percent). Additionally, 54 percent of Canadians have delayed major household purchases due to economic uncertainty. This rises to 62 percent among Canadians between the ages of 18 and 34.
The same poll found that 82 percent of Canadians are concerned that Trump will use various means, such as tariffs and trade sanctions, to try and force Canada into a much closer and more formal political and economic union with the United States.
Last December, economist Trevor Tombe wrote in The Hub that Trump’s 25 percent tariffs could shrink the Canadian economy by 2 to 3 percent. This is largely dependent on the Canadian retaliation plan, which entails a $155 billion retaliatory tariff package. About 45 percent of Canadians said they strongly favour placing retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., while 25 percent said they were somewhat in favour of them.
As of January of this year, the Bank of Canada projected that Canada’s economic growth would increase to 1.8 percent in 2025. This is from a projected 1.3 percent growth in 2024. However, the forecast did not account for any major tariffs.
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He has served as The Hub's Assistant…
