This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
Recent poll shows the Liberals beating the Conservatives
Source: Ipsos
A new Ipsos poll found that if a federal election was held today, 38 percent of Canadians would vote Liberal, 2 percent more than the 36 percent who would vote Conservative. This is the first time an Ipsos poll has shown the Liberals leading the Conservatives since 2021. Ipsos attributes this shift in the voter landscape to “rising anti-Trump sentiment and anticipation surrounding the Liberal party’s new leadership.”
The NDP vote continues to decrease (down four points since January), occupying 12 percent of the Canadian voter share. The Ipsos poll concludes that voters are fleeing from the NDP and flocking to the Liberals.
Additionally, Canadians feel increased urgency for a federal election to be called, with 86 percent of Canadians agreeing an election should be held right away—up 9 percent from January.
Among major Canadian pollsters, this Ipsos poll is somewhat of an outlier. The only other significant pollster to find the Liberals leading the Conservatives (in this case by one point) was a poll done by EKOS released in late February.
While the polls vary on a matter of degree, there is little difference in direction. Almost all major federal pollsters—besides Abacus Data and Innovative Research—listed on 338 Canada have the Liberals cutting down the Conservatives’ once-large lead to less than 10 points.
Only 10 percent of Canadians think Trump is joking about making Canada his 51st state
Source: Pollara
According to Pollara’s exclusive polling for The Hub, an overwhelming 92 percent of Canadians have heard U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments about making Canada the 51st American state. But only 10 percent of Canadians believe Trump is joking, 34 percent take him seriously, and 47 percent see the statement as a negotiation tactic.
The share of Canadians who feel angry towards him also sits at 51 percent, the highest level recorded over the past year. Just under 70 percent of Canadians now feel negatively about Trump.
Currently, 63 percent of Canadians view the U.S. unfavourably. That’s a big shift from six months ago when only 30 percent of views were negative.
Earlier this week, Trump said he would terminate what was expected to be another month-long delay and put a 25 percent blanket tariff on most Canadian goods since “drugs are still pouring into [America].” Canada Border Services Agency recently launched Operation Blizzard to target fentanyl and other synthetic narcotics from arriving into and leaving Canada. This month alone, six seizures amounting to 56.1 grams of fentanyl were made to prevent the drug from crossing into the U.S.
Additionally, in a recent press conference between British Prime Minister Kier Starmer and Trump, the subject of Canada’s annexation came up but was quickly shooed away by the Labour leader.
“Did you discuss with President Trump his repeated statements of desire to annex Canada, and has the King expressed any concern over the president’s apparent desire to remove one of his realms from his control?” asked a reporter.
“You mentioned Canada,” Starmer replied. “I think you’re trying to find a divide between us that doesn’t exist. We’re the closest of nations and we had very good discussions today, but we didn’t discuss Canada.” Trump then interrupted Starmer and said, “That’s enough.”
Carney ahead of Freeland in first ballot votes, but not by much
Source: Mainstreet Research
A poll conducted before this week’s Liberal leadership debates found that Mark Carney holds the lead among registered Liberal voters, as their preferred replacement for Justin Trudeau. Former deputy prime minister and finance minister Chrystia Freeland is in a not-so-distant second place. The poll suggests 43 percent of Liberal voters would vote for Carney on the first ballot, while 31 percent would vote for Freeland. Carney is the frontrunner, but according to this poll, is only ahead of Freeland by 12 points.
Former house leader Karina Gould is supported by 16 percent of registered Liberal voters. Just about 3 percent would vote for former Liberal MP and businessman Frank Baylis. Seven percent are undecided.
“Right now, it doesn’t look like Carney would win on the first ballot,” Pollster Quito Maggi said. However, he expects Carney to win by the end of the race. Carney is the clear favourite on the second round of ranked ballot voting, securing roughly half of Liberal votes.
Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives win their third consecutive majority government in Ontario
Source: Elections Ontario
This week, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives achieved their third straight majority government. The PCs have secured 80 seats (gaining one since dissolution) and 2.1 million votes, accounting for 42.97 percent of the total vote share.
“Together we have made history, together we have secured a strong historic third majority mandate,” Ford declared in his victory speech.
The Ontario New Democratic Party will remain the official Opposition with 27 seats (losing one since dissolution), garnering over 931,000 votes, representing 18.55 percent of the electorate.
The Ontario Liberal Party, while obtaining 1.5 million votes—29.95 percent of the vote share—secured 14 seats. While the party picked up five seats, gaining official party status, Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie failed to gain a seat, losing to the PC candidate in her riding of Mississauga East-Cooksville. However, Crombie ensured that she would stay on as the leader of her party. An Ontario Liberal leader has not had a seat in Queen’s Park since 2018.
Just over 11 million Ontarians voted in the provincial election, translating into a voter turnout of about 45 percent. This is only a slight improvement from the turnout in the last election—43.5 percent—the worst showing in Ontario’s history.
“As we stare down the threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs, I will continue to do just that,” Ford said. “I will work with every level of government and every political stripe because fighting back against Donald Trump, standing up for Canada, it will take a full Team Ontario effort.”
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He is The Hub's Assistant Editor. He…
