This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
Carney sinks while the Conservatives rise
Source: Leger
Canada’s most accurate pollster in the 2021 federal election, Leger, now has the Conservatives leading the Liberals. The Conservatives now lead the Trudeau-led Liberals by 13 percent and the (hypothetical) Carney-led Liberals by 8 percent.
Between March 4 and February 24, Liberal support dropped significantly, falling 7 percent under Carney and 5 percent under Trudeau. Meanwhile, the Conservatives gained 3 and 5 percent, respectively. The NDP saw a slight increase when facing the Trudeau Liberals, but lost one point when facing Carney.
Leger is not the only pollster picking up on the possible end of the Carney honeymoon. In a poll conducted in late February, Abacus Data also has the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 12 percent.
Meanwhile, EKOS, a pollster that predicted a voting shift towards the Liberals early on, found in a poll taken this week that the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives by 5 percent. Ipsos found the Liberals to be ahead of the Conservatives, but only by 2 percent. These pollsters are outliers, as they are the only major ones to record a Liberal lead since Leger last did in 2023, according to 338 Canada.
The Liberal Party will elect its new leader tomorrow.
