The Week in Polling: Canadians think Trump is trying to influence our election; CPC ahead with young voters but struggling with old voters; Nearly half of Canadians want next PM to bring stability rather than change

Conservatives far ahead of the Liberals among young voters, but struggling with boomers

A recent Nanos survey revealed that 45.4 percent of young voters aged 18 to 34 are planning to vote for the Conservative party in the upcoming elections. In comparison, the Liberal party trails at 27.7 percent, while the New Democrats, which have been historically popular among young voters, have only 12 percent support. Smaller parties, such as the Greens at 7.6 percent, the People’s Party at 3.9 percent, and the Bloc Québécois at 3 percent, round out the vote.

This change is likely driven by economic concerns. Many young Canadians are disproportionately impacted by economic challenges like unaffordable housing, high living costs, and stagnant wages impacted by inflation. Younger Canadians between the ages of 18 and 34 are also the demographic most concerned about losing their jobs, according to a Leger poll, at 47 percent.

According to a recent Abacus Data survey, young Canadians see a government that can reduce the cost of living and lower the cost of housing to be the most important factors in gaining their support, compared to older Canadians over 55, who are far less worried about these economic concerns and far more worried about Trump.

Poilievre’s Conservatives have capitalized on this discontent by focusing on economic issues that resonate with younger voters. His promise to remove GST on new homes priced up to $1.3 million to save homebuyers up to $65,000 and his pledge to sell federal property to create more affordable housing appear to have won over the young demographic by a wide margin.

However, he appears to have lost a traditional segment of the Conservative voting base—seniors.

An Abacus Data poll released earlier this month found that 49 percent of Canadian baby boomers (between 60 and 78 years old) believe the top issue is dealing with Trump, ahead of all other issues, including cost of living, by a large margin. According to a new Ipsos poll, the Liberals are perceived to be the best party to stand up to Trump—at 40 percent, compared to the Conservatives’ 28 percent. This week, the polling firm found that 46 percent of Baby Boomers are planning on voting Liberal, whereas 34 percent plan on voting Conservative.

Nearly half of Canadians want their next prime minister to bring steady, gradual change, instead of shaking things up

According to a recent Abacus Data poll, 42 percent of Canadians want a prime minister who can bring stability to the country and keep Canada on a steady, straight path, even if this happens slowly. Only 18 percent want a prime minister who will shake up the system and make bold changes, despite the uncertainty. More than a third of Canadians are looking for a leader who can provide a mix of both, bringing stability to Canada alongside real reform.

Carney appeals to Canadians who prioritize stability, earning 47 percent support among that group, while Poilievre only grabs 31 percent of their support.

Poilievre, meanwhile, resonates with voters who want big changes to be made to the government, winning over 48 percent of those Canadians, while only 27 percent of those voters would vote for Carney.

“The Conservatives resonate with those in a scarcity mindset—voters seeking immediate relief and system disruption—while the Liberals connect with those in a precarity mindset, who are more focused on navigating uncertainty and restoring long-term stability,” Abacus Data’s Coletto and Eddie Sheppard wrote.

According to Coletto, among Canadians who say the election is about Trump, the Liberals are ahead by around 30 points. Meanwhile, when you consider those who say the race is about change, the Conservatives are ahead by 30 points.

“The challenge for [Carney] is that he’s got to show voters he’s a stabilizer but also an agent of change. And [Poilievre], who has to assume that the current chaos won’t last forever, also has to address that dual sense people have: I want stability, but I don’t want the status quo,” Allan Gregg from Earnscliffe Strategy wrote.