Kirk LaPointe: Is this the year Canada (finally) brings the Stanley Cup home?

Wouldn’t it fill our hearts, in this annus horribilis, to bring the Cup home?

Wouldn’t it be wonderful to have a Canadian team visit the House of Commons rather than an American one trek to the White House, where the vice-president would likely drop the Stanley Cup?

Wouldn’t we want a Canadian parade of profound meaning, rather than an American one of an afternoon away from work? A coast-to-coast warmth of recapturing what was rightfully ours, rather than a one-year lease to a city in which the greatest fans are expatriates?

When we last celebrated a Canadian victor of Lord Stanley’s mug, we were rolling pennies into brown wrappers and taking them to a bank teller, developing our photographs at a lab, and dialing into AOL or CompuServe to listen to a screeching modem.

It was 1993, and the Montreal Canadiens won for the 23rd time in the NHL era. We didn’t give much thought to when a Canadian franchise would again hoist the oldest professional sports trophy—next year, year after, maybe year after that, with so many U.S. expansion franchises, but soon.

We’ve had our moments since: Olympic gold in 2002, 2010 on home soil in Vancouver, and 2014; eight IIHF World Championships; two World Cups of Hockey; and the recent Four Nations tournament that drove the first spike into the vampire. It could use a second.

Six times in these three decades-plus, Canadian teams have reached the finals but not sipped from the Cup. The prospective contestants this year are, if nothing else, plentiful: five of seven Canadian-based teams in Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg, and Edmonton.

If someone had offered last fall to bet that rebuilding Calgary would be eliminated from playoff contention on its second-last game, or that Vancouver would be eliminated a week earlier, I’d be doubly poorer. In Calgary’s case, it rode a hot goaltender in an acknowledged rebuilding season. In Vancouver’s, it rode a hellacious series of pratfalls and learned that reversion is a mean bugger—just ask last year’s President’s Trophy winner, the New York Rangers, who are playing golf as I write.

It is a truism that the Stanley Cup is the hardest championship to win in team sports. It takes 16 wins to capture the title. And in Canada’s case, the teams this year are fraught with curse (Toronto), inexperience (Ottawa), surprise (Montreal), doubt (Edmonton), and expectation (Winnipeg).

Likely the five most likely franchises to be congratulated on that last ritualistic handshake of teams at the end of a final series are in Florida (two of them), Texas, Carolina, and Nevada. If you believe in following the money, it helps that three of their jurisdictions—Florida, Texas, and Nevada—have no state income tax, so players save a lot when they sign there. Even Carolina’s is nominal, about $42,500 per $1 million.

And there is the Canadian double-edged sword: the scrutiny of the fan base and its, well, fanaticism. A player likes it or hates it, revels in or fears it, often all in the same day.

Let me try to track the five Canadian franchises in their next steps:

1. Toronto and Ottawa meet in what will likely be the most intense of first-round encounters. It’s Doug Ford against whoever is prime minister this month. Toronto has a marquee foursome in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares, with a reasonably deep roster and an emerging goaltender in Anthony Stolarz. Ottawa has Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle up front and Jake Sanderson defensively, along with a former Vezina winner in goalie Linus Ullmark. Upstart Senators will not topple the Maple Leafs.
2. Edmonton and Los Angeles meet in the first round for the fourth straight year. Edmonton, as we know, is front-loaded: Conor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. It has Evan Bouchard on the back end, but Mattias Ekholm is injured. Despite denials, it seems banged up. A big question is goaltender Stuart Skinner, and another is the return from injury of Evander Kane. The Kings have a slim front line in Anže Kopitar, Quinten Byfield, and Pierre-Luc Dubois. Defenceman Drew Doughty seems ageless among a corps that emphasizes shut-down hockey. But the wild card is goaltender Darcy Kuemper, who has been one of the league’s best in recent months. Edge to Edmonton, which has two of the three best players in the world who can make magic, but L.A. could upset them.
3. Montreal started the season disastrously but has come alive. That can count at playoff time. It has stars in captain Nick Suzuki and Cole Caulfield, perhaps a new luminary in newly landed Ivan Demidov, and an emerging superstar in defenceman Lane Hutson. Its goaltending is more than adequate in Samuel Montembault. But the team is up against the Washington Capitals, who for much of the season led the league. Look past all-time scorer Alex Ovechkin to the other experienced hands and a solid goaltender in Logan Thompson. Youth has its advantages, but at my age, I like to point out that experience rules. Montreal might be Canada’s best team in a couple of years, but Washington wins this series.
4. Winnipeg pegs the hopes of Canada, it seems. It is built competitively at all positions: up front with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, defensively with Josh Morrissey, and in net with arguably the season’s (if not the planet’s) best goaltender in Connor Hellebuyck, who will face his Four Nations rival in Canadian Jordan Binnington. Difficult to swallow that Canada’s best chance depends on an American goalie, but there you have it. The Jets get past St. Louis, who are running on all cylinders and about to find out how difficult it is to find a new gear.

The patriotic fun, I’m afraid, ends there. The two Floridian teams will tangle in the first round and take some stuffing out of each other, but in the process, they’ll make themselves ready for the next round and the rounds after that. The Tampa Bay Lightning feel more hungry at the moment than does the defending champion Florida Panthers. The Dallas Stars are built for the playoffs but have stubbed toes lately. The Vegas Golden Knights are quietly in command of their game. The Carolina Hurricanes have the potential to surprise.

Playoff paths are important. Last year, Edmonton got to the finals on that basis. This year, the paths seem more difficult for the Canadian teams. Toronto has to get past Ottawa, then likely face a Florida team, and it stands to be over. Winnipeg has to deal with Vegas and Dallas before long.

The truth is, there is no favourite to win. Anyone who claims so is fibbing. This year’s Stanley Cup could belong to any number of seven or eight teams, and yes, two of them are Canadian. Cross your fingers, but much as I’d love otherwise, this doesn’t seem the parade year.