This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
No decisive winner of English-language debate, with slight advantage to Poilievre
Source: Abacus Data
On Thursday night, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, Liberal leader Mark Carney, New Democrat leader Jagmeet Singh, and Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet battled it out in the English-language debate live from Montreal.
Abacus Data conducted a snap poll immediately following the war of words, asking respondents which leader did more to win their vote. The numbers collected suggest no clear winner, with Poilievre only edging out Carney by 3 percent, with a margin of error of about 2.9 percentage points.
However, when looking just at the opinions of people who watched the debate in its entirety (23 percent of Canadians), the data suggests Poilievre enjoyed a dominant victory.
Just under 50 percent of those who watched the debate in full think Poilievre did the most to win their vote, while only 37 percent of respondents say the same about Carney.
Source: Abacus Data
John Ibbitson wrote in The Hub that while Poilievre did not decisively win the debate, Carney most likely lost it.
“Poilievre was most successful when he hung Trudeau’s legacy around Carney’s neck,” he explained. He added that the Conservative leader, “accused [Carney] of being almost a figurehead, fronting a Liberal Party whose policies had become deeply unpopular.”
However, Ibbitson did write that Carney got a few decent shots in, quoting when the Liberal leader told Poilievre, “You spent years running against Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax. They’re both gone.”
Sean Speer wrote in The Hub that Thursday night’s debate showed Poilievre attempting to steer the campaign towards change.
“He’s prepared to win or lose making the case for change. He must have said the word a dozen times or more,” described The Hub‘s co-founder. “A political strategy needs to ultimately be something that they [politicians] believe in. It has to animate them. It must align the head and the heart. Poilievre’s debate performance is a sign that the Conservatives have settled on such a political strategy,” Speer writes.
In terms of national viewership, the Abacus poll found that 50 percent of Anglophone Canadians watched all or some of the debate. Fifty-two percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 watched all or some of the debate, the largest age demographic to have tuned in. The least likely age demographic to have seen the debate was the 45-59 age group, at 48 percent.
Ontario, a key battleground province, was the most tuned-in, with 54 percent of voters watching the debate in its entirety, or parts of it.
Moreover, just under 60 percent of potential Liberal voters watched all or some of the debate, compared to 54 percent of Conservative voters and only 37 percent of NDP voters.
The survey included 600 English-speaking Canadian adults, representative of 1,200 voters.
The Conservatives are creeping up in the polls
Source: 338 Canada and Mainstreet Research
While the Liberals still maintain a lead in most polls conducted by major pollsters, their momentum appears to be slowing down as the Conservatives gain support. Several polls, including recent ones from Abacus Data, Liason Strategies, Leger, and Mainstreet Research, show the Liberal lead narrowing between their most recent public opinion poll and their previous one.
Darrell Bricker, the CEO of Ipsos, wrote on his X that the race is tightening because the anxiety related to Trump and Canada has “eased a bit.” According to the pollster, this has shifted Canadians’ focus back to affordability and other issues related to the economy, which favours the Tories. He also said it’s made room for voters to reflect on 10 years of Liberal government, which also favours Conservatives.
Due to the Western concentration of Conservative support and the voter efficiency of their opponents, the party will require a larger lead to actually form government.
Conservative voters are largely motivated by hope, while Liberal voters are focused on fear
Source: Leger
A recent Leger poll found that more than 75 percent of Conservative voters are marking their ballots based on a hope for a better future in Canada to live, work and raise a family, while 60 percent of Liberal voters are voting based on a fear of what the future holds for Canada in light of the U.S. trade actions and the aggressive behaviour of President Trump.
Just under 35 percent of Liberals are motivated by hope for a better Canada, and about 20 percent of Conservatives are motivated by a fear for Canada’s future in light of Trump’s trade war.
Overall, 51 percent of all Canadians are voting based on hope for a better future, and 39 percent are voting out of fear of Trump. About 10 percent of voters said neither hope nor fear was the primary feeling motivating their vote.
Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president, told the National Post that these responses reflect the temperament and goals of Poilievre and Carney.
“In a way, it’s a bit of the ballot-question battle,” said Enns. “Those respondents to our poll who are currently voting Liberal tend to think this election is about the fear of the U.S. and protecting Canada from Trump, and you’ve got the Conservatives who are a bit more inclined on the topic of change, and a future that looks better than the last five or so years.”
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He is The Hub's Assistant Editor. He…
