Supporters of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre say they are confident he will form a majority government on Monday—even as polls continue to show Mark Carney’s Liberals winning the election.
The Hub attended an energetic Poilievre rally in Saskatoon, Sask., on Thursday, one of the last days of the campaign, and spoke to several attendees.
While many expressed confidence that Poilievre will win, others warned that Western separatism could become more mainstream if the Liberals are re-elected.
A look inside @PierrePoilievre’s energetic rally in Saskatoon, SK. pic.twitter.com/UQc3F1G8ES
— Élie Cantin-Nantel (@elie_mcn) April 25, 2025
Confidence in a Poilievre win
Multiple attendees The Hub spoke to said they believe Poilievre will not only win Monday, but win a majority government.
“You bet. All the way. It will be without a doubt a landslide,” said Randy Rustad, 56.
“I’m very hopeful,” said Adam Fransoo, 25.
Others expressed more cautious optimism.
“We have been praying and praying and praying over and over that he does win,” said Brandi Melnechenko, 48.
“We’re tired of the Liberals and what they’ve been doing for the last 10 years. It’s flat out time for a change, added her husband, Jason, 48.
Cierra Rorick, 21, said “I’m hopeful, but I don’t want to get too hopeful. You never know.”
Distrust of polls
According to polling aggregator 338Canada, Carney’s Liberal Party would win between 147 and 220 seats, while the Conservatives could win between 91 and 161 if the election were held Friday. A majority government requires 172 seats.
The Liberals have an 89 percent chance of winning the most seats, while the Conservatives have an 11 percent chance of winning the most seats.
All the people The Hub spoke to said they don’t trust the polls.
Provided reasons included perceived inaccuracies in 2016 U.S. presidential election polling and the large crowds at Poilievre rallies.
“If you look at the American elections, they were saying the Democrat Party was winning, and then all of a sudden, Trump won. I feel like that’s probably what’s happening here,” said Rorick.
During the 2016 U.S. election, Reuters and Ipsos even gave Hilary Clinton a 90 percent chance of winning. Trump ended up winning 304 electoral votes, while Clinton won 227. Polls also underestimated Trump’s support in 2024.
“It’s just like the United States, where Trump wasn’t gonna win. Everything’s happening in Canada exactly like it happened in the States,” added Rustad. “Carney has 200 people, and Pierre Poilievre has thousands. The numbers are there.”
“There’s momentum. It’s like Muhammad Ali back in the day; he drew the people to him,” said Fransoo.
Others pointed to inaccurate polls during the recent Saskatchewan provincial election, where pollsters showed the NDP ahead, but come election day, the Saskatchewan Party under Scott Moe ultimately won.
It should however be noted that federal polls did accurately predict Justin Trudeau’s 2015, 2019, and 2021 wins.
Gen Z for Pierre
Rorick and Fransoo were among the several Generation Z Canadians (born between 1997 and 2012) at the rally.
This week, a Leger survey showed 44 percent of voters aged 18-34 support the Conservatives, compared to 38 percent for the Liberals. It is now the Tories strongest demographic.
“He’s kind of the first politician that I’m excited to vote for, as opposed to, ‘Well I guess that’s an option,’” said Rorick.
For Fransoo, being a young conservative means “having some backbone and standing up for what you believe is right.”
A Carney win could fuel Western separatism
The Hub also asked attendees if they believe Western separatism will become mainstream in Saskatchewan if the Liberals win the election.
The response was largely affirmative.
“If the East decides that it’s the Liberals again, then it’s time to leave. We’re done. We want our future grandchildren to live in a house, not in a rented Liberal box, or our basement,” said Melnechenko.
“I think Alberta will start it and Saskatchewan’s gonna have to follow because there’s no way we should be paying for them. We’re the only ones with money,” she added.
“If the Liberals win again, we’re out. We’ve had enough. We’ve had enough of them not listening to us,” asserted Rustad. “[The East] supposedly has all the power. No, we in Saskatchewan and Alberta have the power, and we have to take it back,” he added.
Recent polling from Angus Reid showed that support for leaving Canada would jump from 20 percent to 33 percent if the Liberals are re-elected—the highest of any province.
Travel expenses for The Hub’s election coverage are made possible by the Public Policy Forum, the Rideau Hall Foundation, and the Michener Awards Foundation.
Élie Cantin-Nantel is The Hub’s Ottawa Correspondent. Prior to joining the team, he practiced journalism for a variety of outlets. Élie also has experience working…
