The terms of trade are shifting, and in today’s turbulent economy, standing still is no longer an option. Policy volatility in the United States, China’s dominance in critical minerals, and rising pressure around food and energy security are reshaping how and where nations do business. While the U.S. has pulled back on climate competitiveness, the EU and other jurisdictions have not. The race to secure positions in low-carbon value chains is well underway, and global markets are scouting for who’s ready to play. Capital is moving toward jurisdictions that demonstrate readiness, reliability, and emissions performance.
Global low-carbon investment—capital flowing into technologies, infrastructure, and industrial activities that reduce emissions or enable clean energy rose 11 percent last year to a record $2.1 trillion USD, mostly driven by renewables, power-grid upgrades, and energy storage, but also investment in sectors like nuclear, geothermal, and carbon capture. Across Asia, companies are making multi-billion-dollar investments in low-emission energy, including here in Canada. In Europe, the EU is forging new clean-energy trade deals. Many of these markets already see Alberta as a “growing supplier of both traditional energy and clean technologies,” as ambassadors from the EU, U.K., and Germany recently noted.
In the era of energy coexistence, where traditional and low-carbon solutions develop side-by-side, Canada must play well both at home and abroad. That means investing in homegrown industries that can meet global demand while expanding access to allied markets, and strengthening its role in North American supply chains. And when it comes to energy, Alberta’s mix of resources, talent, and infrastructure should make it a frontrunner to capture these opportunities.
Alberta aims to shift from resource powerhouse to industrial superpower. What are the key sectors identified for this transition?
How does policy volatility in the U.S. impact Alberta's trade strategy, and what makes some sectors more resilient?
What are the primary challenges Alberta faces in capitalizing on the global low-carbon transition, and what is needed for success?
The province’s advantage lies in leveraging the industries that have long been the backbone of its economy, such as oil and gas, petrochemicals, and agriculture. A new wave of resource-based, low-emission sectors is emerging that builds on Alberta’s industrial strengths while positioning the province to compete in the next industrial wave—the kinds of low-carbon investments that global markets are actively competing to attract. The question is whether Alberta can move fast enough to stake its place before global markets move on. The next wave of growth is on the horizon New analysis from the Energy Futures Lab, Alberta’s Future Competitiveness and the Next Wave of Growth, identifies 16 viable sectors across energy, industry, agriculture, and technology that align with demand from markets prioritizing low-carbon. Five stand out as strong growth pathways based on market demand, comparative advantage, and trade potential: Clean energy enablers (electricity) Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Green chemistry and advanced materials Alternative proteins and agri-food innovation Critical minerals and metals production and processing These are not speculative bets; they’re grounded in global demand and proven capability. Clean energy enablers could generate $6.5 billion in Alberta’s market. Projects like Varme Energy’s Heartland facility aim to convert 205,000 tonnes of waste into clean power while capturing 200,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide each year. Alberta already hosts six of the world’s 57 large-scale CCS facilities, which could contribute $379 million to provincial GDP and position the province as a leader in exporting CCS technology and services in a global market forecasted at $18 billion USD. And its $16.8-billion petrochemicals sector provides a strong platform to compete in next-generation materials. With demand for “green” chemicals (e.g., low-carbon, bio-based products) growing 9 percent annually and expected to top $230 billion USD by 2023, green chemistry is emerging as a major opportunity. The province’s strong agricultural legacy includes cultivating 2.4 million acres of pulses, yet most are exported raw—leaving value-added potential on the table. But more than $435 million in recent investments, including the More Than Protein Ingredients plant in Bowden and Strathmore’s Phytokana facility, signal growing momentum in a global alternative-protein market projected to exceed $36 billion USD in the decade ahead. Critical minerals and materials produced from them could reshape Alberta’s role in the energy transition. The global market for transition minerals is expected to reach $290 billion within five years. Western Canada can help meet these needs with its abundant critical mineral reserves, but currently lacks the midstream processing and refining capacity to convert raw resources into the high-value materials integral to almost everything we rely on—from the technologies that power our homes and industries to the devices that connect us. With strong processing expertise, Alberta could anchor a multi-billion-dollar refining corridor for Western and Northern Canada. The Western Canadian Critical Materials Alliance is already charting a path by taking a regional approach to strengthen the critical materials ecosystem and facilitate investment in facilities, infrastructure, and innovation. Competing where Canada must lead Understanding this opportunity requires a clear view of trade exposure. Some sectors are highly sensitive to U.S. policy swings, while others are more resilient. For instance, 89 percent of Alberta’s chemical exports go to the U.S., making tariff or subsidy changes south of the border disproportionately impactful. On the other hand, clean energy enablers are largely insulated from U.S. trade volatility given they serve a primarily domestic market and can strengthen Alberta’s domestic competitiveness while contributing to national energy security—exactly the kind of dual-purpose value governments and investors prioritize. Resilience to U.S. policy shifts was one of seven lenses analyzed in the report. The sectors were also stress-tested against a range of plausible future geopolitical scenarios. Together, the results clarify where alignment, adaptation, or diversification will be required if Alberta wants to connect local strengths to global markets or broaden beyond U.S. markets. From analysis to action The emerging picture is not about choosing a single winner but building a resilient industrial portfolio. Alberta must focus investment and policy where comparative advantage is strongest and where the province can offer what global markets value: low emissions, industrial reliability, and deep resource expertise. Getting the fundamentals right is the price of admission to this global exercise. Alberta needs reliable clean power, efficient permitting, investment-ready hubs and trade corridors, effective carbon management, and policy tools that de-risk capital and accelerate industrial development. It will take more than investing in isolated projects. It requires building ecosystems around these industries that benefit Alberta’s economy and its communities. Alberta has the building blocks to turn potential into performance, but its next moves can help or hinder its position in the shifting global energy landscape. The province can shift from being a supplier of raw commodities to a powerhouse of value-added production and clean-energy innovation, building on its existing regional strengths. The Energy Futures Lab will continue working with partners across the ecosystem to align behind the most promising opportunities, so Alberta can take its best shot. The signals are strong, and the global economy isn’t waiting. Alberta shouldn’t either.
Keren Perla is the Director of Alberta’s Clean Competitiveness with the Energy Futures Lab, a trusted convener uniting diverse energy system voices to tackle complex challenges and design practical solutions for a low-emission future. Ailsa Popilian is Senior Manager of Communications and Community Engagement with the Energy Futures Lab.
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