In 2026, defining the future is Canada’s most important economic multiplier

As we look ahead, the global economic narrative is one of divergence and adaptation. Tariffs are reshaping supply chains, artificial intelligence promises a productivity revolution, and businesses of all sizes are pivoting to meet a rapidly changing world. For Canada, the story is one of hard-won resilience and converting that into new momentum. While the past two years have seen Canadian businesses navigate higher input costs and trade uncertainty, 2025 was a pivotal moment, where the country demonstrated a collective ability to navigate complex challenges and maintain a stable foundation. However, as we enter 2026, the data suggests that resilience alone isn’t enough. The latest forecast from the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) anticipates real GDP growth of 1.3 percent in 2026, down from 1.7 percent last year. While growth is continuing, it underscores the need for a new economic multiplier: an intentional commitment to move beyond just responding to the market and start setting the pace globally. This requires leaders to come together and strategically invest in Canadians in a way that will define the future of our respective industries. Canadians see innovation as critical to future success. According to new Mastercard research, 75 percent of Canadians believe adopting new technologies is extremely or very important to Canada’s economic future, with 74 percent pointing to job creation and economic growth as where it can contribute most. Understanding where these opportunities lie requires a high degree of clarity. Canada is more than just a single economy; it is made up of local and regional economies with very different realities. By analyzing anonymized, aggregated spending patterns, we can see this through a real-time map of consumer confidence, allowing business leaders to make strategic investment decisions based on the conditions directly in their communities. Currently, MEI’s analysis highlights a tightening link between labour market conditions and discretionary demand. In regions where job growth has softened, spending in categories like restaurants and apparel has followed suit. This data is more than just a snapshot of the past. It also offers business leaders the insights needed to navigate an uncertain future. We leverage deep data sets to help organizations translate complexity into strategy at Mastercard, ensuring they can make informed, high-stakes decisions with confidence. The primary source of this uncertainty remains the upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (CUSMA), which continues to influence business investment and hiring plans. Until greater policy clarity is achieved, a cloud will remain over the sectors and regions most integrated with North American supply chains. The challenge now is to take the hard learned lessons of the past two years and move from a defensive posture to an offensive one. By anchoring decisions in data and prioritizing the realities of affordability and opportunity, Canada has a unique opportunity to lead the world in the new economy, in areas like AI and Agentic Commerce. Prioritizing a leadership role in this area will attract new investment, build a renewed confidence in the Canadian economy, and ultimately drive the opportunities Canadians are searching for. Now is the time to focus on unlocking opportunity to boost job creation and long-run competitiveness. And that starts with addressing its barriers—including funding, regulation, talent, and infrastructure. In an era of global fragmentation, Canada’s challenge is to navigate external pressures while reinforcing the domestic foundations of growth. The defining task for 2026 is to seize the opportunity to lead and set the pace for the digital economy of the future. Doing so while harnessing Canadians’ clear belief in adopting new technologies may well determine not only our economic stability, but also our future prosperity.