The eruption of Mount Tambor volcano in 1815 had distant and unexpected consequences beyond the devastation it caused to the local population of what is now Indonesia. The implications of the eruption and the ash clouds it belched as far away as Belgium have been linked to events as diverse as Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo, floods, famine and social unrest in China that contributed to its Century of Humiliation, credit crunches in American banks, and a cholera epidemic that emerged out of Bengal.
Looking to our own future, such ripple effects may pale in comparison to those caused by climate change, which if not prepared for could be even more drastic and wide-reaching, warn retired U.S. army general David Petraeus and Benedict McAleenan, the senior advisor for energy and environment at Policy Exchange.
“The links between climate change, national security, and the wellbeing of societies are undeniable and becoming increasingly pronounced,” they write.
Key in preparing for these possible risks is categorizing them correctly, they argue.
“For some years, for example, the foreign affairs and security establishment has described climate change as a ‘threat multiplier.’ And, indeed it is: climate change clearly exacerbates familiar pressures such as poverty, corruption, resource scarcity, and authoritarianism. Yet this descriptor is just not enough; it is too vague and too limited in its ability to prescribe a policy response. Simply stating that climate change will make every threat more intense is not very helpful in practical terms.”
So what is helpful? They suggest conceptualizing the problem along the lines of financial analysts, who have identified three broad areas of climate-related risk for investments: Physical risks emerging from an uncertain environment, transition risks in the form of opportunities as the world shifts from fossil fuels to renewables, and liability risks of costly and complex litigation dealing with the causes of climate change.
Implementing adaptive systems capable of managing these risks calls for broad global participation, they conclude.
“Climate change is, of course, a global challenge — and a particularly pressing one — not just in its origins, but in its implications. It thus requires a sophisticated solution that mobilises the resources of all societies and nation states…As with many security and geopolitical challenges of the past, climate change need not define our fates if the leading countries of the world, representing all systems, recognise the magnitude of the threats and make way together.”
