Faced with the stunning spread of COVID-19 across the world many countries implemented social distancing measures and shelter-in-place (SIP) protocols in an attempt to slow transmission of the virus by limiting physical interaction.
A new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper examines the data from SIP policies in 43 countries and all U.S. states in order to evaluate the impact these measures had on their stated aim of reducing excess mortality.
The authors warn that it is impossible to completely isolate the causal effects of SIP policies, and also that the counterfactual trajectory of the pandemic in the absence of SIP policies is difficult to estimate and might vary across countries and states.
Even still, their conclusion is striking: “We do not find differences in the impact of SIP policies based on the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic when policies were implemented.”
Excess mortality in fact increased, and was statistically significant in the immediate weeks following SIP implementation in the international comparison.
The authors suggest it is possible that SIP policies increased deaths of despair due to economic and social isolation effects. They outline that drug overdoses, homicides, and unintentional injuries increased in the U.S. in 2020, and additionally that SIP policies led to a reduction in non-COVID-19 health care, which might have contributed to an increase in non-COVID-19 deaths.
Continuing with SIP policies may be more counterproductive than beneficial, the authors warn. Instead, policy efforts aimed at boosting vaccinations are more likely to have large positive impacts moving forward.
“In light of this evidence, continued reliance on SIP policies to slow COVID-19 transmission may not be optimal. Instead, the best policy response may be pharmaceutical interventions in the form of vaccinations and therapeutics when they become available. Early evidence suggests that initial vaccination efforts have led to large reductions in COVID-19 incidence.”
