The Federal Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development recently identified significant weaknesses in the federal government’s modelling of its climate change policies, including overly optimistic assumptions and limited analysis of uncertainties. This is very unfortunate for Albertans, as the economic and fiscal impacts of harmful federal climate change policies represent a clear and present danger to the Alberta economy and provincial government finances.
These gaps in federal government modelling mean Albertans lack critical information on the impact of the 2030 federal Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP), the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, and the federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) on the province’s economy and government finances. As noted by the C.D. Howe Institute:
Given the ERP’s scale and potential impact, the government owes it to Canadians to say how much it will cost, and exactly how they came up with the numbers. To build trust and improve policy, the government should make sure modeling be transparent and open to debate and adjustment. They also need to track the benefits and costs and alter policy should new data suggest it.
This is an area where the Government of Alberta should jump in and fill the information void for Albertans. Alberta Treasury Board and Finance and Alberta Environment and Protected Areas have completed a significant body of preliminary work to assess the impact of federal climate change policies on Alberta, including various briefings, summaries, economic and emissions models, and other materials. For some reason, however, there seems to be a reluctance to share this information with Albertans. Sharing this information, however, is critical to the province’s response to intrusive federal climate change policies.
Robust risk management and reporting, through comprehensive impact modeling of federal climate change policies, is essential to informed decisions by Alberta’s elected officials to guide prudent provincial responses to harmful federal policies. The transparency and credibility of Alberta’s climate change policy modeling efforts rest on making its federal climate change policy impact analyses public.
Despite the significant fiscal and economic risks associated with federal climate change policies, including the 2030 ERP, very little provincial government modeling has been publicly released to allow Albertans to gauge the impacts of federal government climate change policies on the economy, employment, investment, exports, and provincial government revenues. What little modeling information we know of publicly coming from the GoA reveals that federal climate change policies are expected to have a significant negative impact on the Alberta economy and provincial government finances.
Preliminary analysis undertaken in an RFP by Alberta Treasury Board and Finance suggests that implementation of the federal government’s 2030 ERP would see Alberta’s economy $37 billion smaller than normal in 2030. There would be about 80,000 fewer jobs available in 2030 than normal. And Alberta government revenues would be 6 to 7 percent less, or about $4.2 billion lower than normal by 2030.
These are big numbers, but Albertans need more detail on the damage so we can present the best possible defence against Ottawa’s harmful intrusions. Here is where the Alberta government can fill the information void left by the federal government.
Earlier this year, the Conference Board of Canada (CBoC) was retained by TB&F to assist in quantifying the impacts of 2030 ERP. The CBoC project team reports to senior officials within Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, Environment and Protected Areas, and Energy and Minerals on a regular basis, so the modelling work must be considered critical to the province’s risk assessment activities.
This complements other federal climate change policy analyses being conducted on an in-house basis by Alberta Environment and Protected Areas. As well, third-party modeling of federal climate change policies by Navius Research and S&P Global Commodity Insights have been prepared for or shared with the Alberta government earlier this year, but have not been publicly released.
Best practice would dictate increased openness and transparency when it comes to the Alberta government’s federal climate change policy impact modelling. In October 2022, for example, the Saskatchewan government released its impact modelling of federal climate change policies on the Saskatchewan economy.
Albertans are approaching COP28 in Dubai with an increasing sense of dread because they know the federal government is planning to double- and triple-down down on harmful policies, such as the 2030 ERP, the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, and the Clean Electricity Regulation, which are clear and direct threats to the livelihood of Albertans.
To put forward the best possible defence of Alberta’s interests on the world stage, the Alberta government must publicly release all its analyses of federal climate change policies, as soon as possible.
