This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.
Young Canadians are delaying important milestones because of the housing crisis and the high cost of living
Source: Abacus Data
The impact of the Canadian housing crisis and the high cost of living has resulted in many young people delaying important life events.
Based on the most recent data available, the average income of a Canadian between the ages of 25 and 34 is $55,000, while the average asking price for a rental unit in Canada is $2,185 per month. The average home costs $696,179.
According to a DeepDive by Hendrik Brakel, groceries in Canada have risen by 21.4 percent between March 2021 and March 2024. Increases like these make the cost of living unbearably high for young Canadians.
Many young people find the goals of starting a family, renting a new place, and buying a home unreachable, given their salaries and the high costs they have to endure.
The Liberals have lost the youth vote
Source: Abacus Data
The youth vote has been an important factor in the federal Liberal Party’s previous election victories. The Liberals are still targeting this cohort in hopes that young voters will save them from likely defeat to the Conservatives in the next election.
However, according to Abacus Data, the governing Liberals have experienced a nearly 20 percent drop in youth support since their majority in 2015, which brought Mr. Trudeau to power.
Adding insult to injury, the Conservatives are seeing their highest youth support since 2015, at 37 percent (a 16 percent rise).
Canadians think a Trump-Vance administration would be ‘bad news,’ or worse, for Canada
Source: The Angus Reid Institute
About two-thirds of Canadians think a White House led by former President Donald Trump and his newly selected running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, is, at least, bad news for Canada, if not much worse.
Given Trump’s “America First” agenda and its potentially negative consequences for the Canadian economy, which The Hub‘s Publisher Rudyard Griffiths discussed in a recent article, it tracks that some Canadians are very hesitant to support a Trump-Vance office. However, only 23 percent of Canadians believe that a Trump-Vance presidency would have a “very negative impact” on the Canadian economy.
Two of the top concerns Canadians have are the heightened risk of global instability and increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Trump leads Harris, but only by about 2 percent
Source: The Hill (compiled data from 81 polls from recognized American and international pollsters)
Since President Joe Biden announced that he was withdrawing from the 2024 U.S. presidential race late last week, the spotlight has been on his vice president, Kamala Harris. This week, Harris secured enough support from delegates to be the Democratic nominee at the Democratic National Convention next month.
A race between Trump and Harris is becoming increasingly likely. When head-to-head, a compiled dataset from 81 polls has Trump besting Harris by just two points. When Trump was put against Biden, the most recent poll from The Hill gave Trump more than a three-point lead.
Aiden Muscovitch is a student at the University of Toronto studying Ethics, Society and Law. He is The Hub's Assistant Editor. He…
