The counts and recounts and final counts are in, and the people have spoken: But, uh, take it easy, big guy. You’re the winner, but not exactly a fan favourite.
On Monday, in the final hours of the final day of the final count, what was a Conservative Party of British Columbia lead in one Surrey riding flipped to the BC New Democrats, permitting leader David Eby to persuade the British Columbian Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin to sanction his 47-seat majority—even if it becomes a 46-seat minority—in the 93-seat legislature as the government. Thus, following the interminable Elections BC formalities, this province now has the squeakiest, squeamish government in the country.
The Conservatives under John Rustad, once a minor former cabinet minister, who then mounted a major threat and soared as an election cycle approached, came up gasping at the marathon’s home stretch and could not breach the tape first. He now has 44 seats, maybe 45 (depending on judicial recounts, which could take a week or two), which is pretty dandy for a newbie party, but short of what most everyone attached to their political tether thought he could achieve. It was Rustad’s election to lose.
The Greens? Well, the Greens have two seats, making them helpful to Eby if he (doubtfully) stays at 46 following those recounts. But they are less needed than they were just a few days ago. But, we will see.
So, 46 or 47 sounds good if you’re an NDP supporter. An NDP government sustained. But, not so fast. They need a Speaker, and there the equation wobbles. Anyone available to be the Speaker? Anyone dare remove an MLA from their caucus?
If it’s an NDPer, it’s not good. With an NDP Speaker in the middle of this legislative foofaraw, he/she/they still would face a tie when the Greens don’t support them—which, as you might expect, won’t be often, but occasionally enough to be the cause of Dipper worry. Parliamentary convention is that a Speaker doesn’t cast votes in a tie to favour a new or amended law. Unless the NDP has another plan in mind—and don’t put it past the party to plant a partisan Speaker who will side and side and side—this is a serious roadblock to legislation of any ideological consequence. It would be an “NDP Lite” government, tinged at times with Green.
If it’s a Conservative Speaker, it’s not just not good, it’s not a good look. They see themselves as the invaders of the domain, not the prospective peacemakers amid the acrimony on the floor of the legislature. The NDP will need to offer more in political currency than a major-league sports contract and call Ottawa to enlist said person into the post-political RCMP New Identities Program to entice them to the position. Even then, some Conservatives will scour the land to find the traitor.
If it’s a Green Speaker, what the hell are you doing? As one of two MLAs, you aimed to go to Victoria to don the mantle of policy influence, not to don a robe and neuter your impact.
And if Eby researches and concludes how it is a nicety but not a necessity to appoint an elected Speaker—and instead maneuver into place someone who has held the position or will hold it pro tem—good luck to him on that dizzying appointment. It’ll be the highest-paid child care professional in the province.
Which is a byzantine way of reporting that this government may not last beyond the NHL season—maybe the start of the 2025-26 one—if Rustad holds to his suggestion that he’ll bring the government down at the earliest opportunity. However, he can’t be sure that his startup party will have the financial wherewithal to pursue the next chapter of the takedown. Elections are expensive and his party is in debt, and election fatigue is not an ailment much loved by the public.
For Eby, this is a grand opportunity, but his challenge is to deliver what business people call a proof of concept. As in: demonstrate you can do this and that it will actually work. His mandate appears to require that he not be who he has been. If voters bailed on the full swing to Rustad, and they certainly recoiled from many of his candidates, they didn’t exactly endorse Eby with any sense of enthusiasm.
He would be wise to listen more than he speaks, and even less than he ruminates as others speak, and stop at every yellow light politically. This needs to be a buttoned-up, moderated, and user-friendly premier.
Not that Eby has made it easy on himself. Not at all. His $8.9 billion deficit, only two years removed from inheriting the premiership at a $6 billion surplus, will land most assuredly with eight figures. Before the decimal point. But most don’t care. For now.
B.C. is running out of megaprojects and has nothing on the drafting board to float our economy. Justin Trudeau is slenderizing the immigration influx that he had raised the top line of the GDP numbers. Interest rates are in repose, but that only means a more torrid housing market without the concurrent housing supply. I’m not an economist, but I believe that means higher prices.
And Premier Eby, even if sheltered in his splintered legislature, soon will be contending with a much more authentic version of the contemporary take-no-prisoners politics in the form of Pierre Poilievre. Besides being carbon-based lifeforms, the two share nothing else in common. They will spar in the ring and Eby will very likely learn that, despite his reach as the taller one, Poilievre will pummel the rib cage and, if needed, wear a few penalty points for the below-the-belt punches. Eby will face more troubles from Ottawa than from Victoria.
As for Rustad, what to do now? How do you puncture the ceiling when the ceiling has been overhead for months? Is lurking to bring down the government something that will yield government for you? Who are you as the man now?
I remain convinced that his ascension stalled because, with the exceptional and unanticipated growth of the Conservative Party, there was monkey business in the ranks that produced an untenable team of too many rogues and outliers for government the British Columbian public sussed this out, even in its desperation for change, and turned away from enough candidates to deny a very decent man his place as premier.
The people who signed on to the Conservative Party when it polled at 4 percent last summer were mostly not deserving of the reward at 40 percent. They were from another cognitive branch of the species. The hubris in the Conservatives is that next time will be an easy picking. But why would you bring on people who cannot see reality in science, in humanities, in the very common sense you profess to represent? If he cannot plot to remove these people from his posse in the short term, they will be an unfortunately better-known, better-shown, heavier anchor behind the boat as he tries to water ski his way to election next time.
That is, if he chooses to run again. It’s his big if.
Kirk LaPointe is The Hub's B.C. Correspondent. He is a transplanted Ontarian to British Columbia. Before he left, he ran CTV News, Southam News and the Hamilton Spectator. He also helped launch the National Post as its first executive editor, was a day-one host on CBC Newsworld, and ran the Ottawa…...
