In The Weekly Wrap Sean Speer, our editor-at-large, analyses for Hub subscribers the big stories shaping politics, policy, and the economy in the week that was.
Can Carney resist the temptation to antagonize Alberta for short-term political gain?
It seems presumptuous to attribute a grand strategy to Donald Trump’s provocations about Canada becoming the 51st state. As the old saying goes, never assume sophistication when social media trolling or other more prosaic explanations will do.
But even if inadvertent, Trump and others in his administration may have stumbled upon the potential to precipitate major tensions inside Canada and boost the numbers of Canadians open to abandoning their country.
Earlier this week, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told the American media that Canadian oil and gas exports could be exempted from sweeping tariffs scheduled to take effect on April 2. This is a big deal: oil and gas exports are by far Canada’s most valuable to the U.S. at roughly $150 billion per year. Securing an exemption would ostensibly be a major win for Canada’s economy.
Yet that’s far from a consensus view these days. Politicians and pundits are instead calling on the federal and Alberta governments to impose an export tax on the oil and gas sector if it ultimately receives an exemption or is subjected to a reduced tariff rate. Ontario Premier Doug Ford for instance has described an export tax as the “trump card” in an escalating trade war.
For her part, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has emphatically said that her government would oppose such an “absurd and self-destructive” measure. She has rightly characterized it as the equivalent of an export tax on Ontario automobiles.
As we approach what’s likely to be a tightly contested federal election, one can envision this issue looming disproportionately over the campaign trail. The political incentives for Mark Carney and the Liberals would presumably tilt in favour of supporting such a tax. Not only would it demonstrate their willingness to take a hard line against the unpopular Trump administration, but it’s also likely that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives would oppose it based on their strong roots in Alberta, so it would represent a key point of differentiation with swing voters in Central Canada. In a race that’s bound to be close, it may be too difficult for Carney to resist the temptation not to seize on it.
But while it may be good short-term politics, the risks to national unity cannot be overstated. Albertans would rightly see it as a policy of using their jobs and livelihoods as a bargaining chip. That it would be the subject of partisan differences at the national level and egged on by Central Canadian interests would undoubtedly make it worse. It’s a safe bet that it would fan the flames of Alberta grievance and even Western separation. We could expect a spike in the number of Albertans who say that they’d support becoming the 51st state.
Such an outcome would predictably play directly into Trump’s hands. It would give him undue control over our politics. We’d be letting ourselves fall prey to his provocations. Think of it as manufactured disunity.
In this fraught moment, we need our politicians—particularly the national ones—to look out for the national interest. And there’s nothing more central to the national interest than the fundamental unity of the country. It’s imperative therefore that Carney and the Liberals reject the notion of an export tax on Canada’s oil and gas to the United States.
There’s no benefit to pretending COVID-19 never happened
This week marked the fifth anniversary of the World Health Organization’s designation of COVID-19 as a pandemic. But Canadians would be forgiven for not knowing it. There was virtually no coverage in the mainstream media of the anniversary or the pandemic’s enduring legacy. It’s a peculiar oversight given that it was the worst pandemic in a century and its influence on our society persists to the present.
The Hub, by the way, was a notable exception. Our deputy editor Luke Smith authored a comprehensive review of COVID-19’s cultural, economic, political, and of course health effects on Canada. It’s a must-read for those who want to reflect on our pandemic response and how the entire experience has since influenced Canadian life.
