Hub Exclusive: The Liberals’ climate policies are projected to take nearly $1 trillion out of Alberta’s economy by 2050

The results appear to be worse. The National Energy Program is estimated to have destroyed about $37 billion in economic activity in the province between 1981 and 1984. Between 2030 and 2033, the Emissions Reduction Plan, including the oil and gas emissions cap, is estimated to take $102 billion out of Alberta’s economy. The negative effects on the Alberta government’s own public finances are also notable. Consider: Alberta government total revenues are projected to be nearly $4.3 billion lower in 2030/31, growing to $14.5 billion lower in 2050/51; Alberta government cumulative total revenues are estimated to be $196.2 billion lower, between 2030/31 and 2050/51: Alberta government royalties are $2.7 billion lower in 2030-31, growing to $9.5 billion lower in 2050/51; Alberta government cumulative royalties are estimated to be $124.2 billion lower between 2030/31 and 2050/51; The Alberta government’s net fiscal balance (surplus/deficit) is nearly $3.9 billion lower in 2030-31, growing to over $19 billion lower in 2050-51; and The Alberta government’s cumulative net fiscal balance (surplus/deficit) is estimated to be $237.7 billion lower, between 2030-31 and 2050-51. One way to understand these fiscal costs—namely, a $151.3 billion negative cumulative effect on the province’s net fiscal balance between 2030-31 and 2045-46—is to compare them to Albertans’ net contribution to federal finances between 2007 and 2022, which was $244.6 billion. In other words, the amount of harm to the Government of Alberta’s bottom line between 2030-31 and 2045-46 from federal climate policy is equivalent to over 60 percent of what Albertans’ net contribution was to Ottawa’s bottom line between 2007 and 2022. A key result is that it will greatly erode the Alberta government’s ability to sustain a balanced budget or contribute to the Heritage Fund. The Conference Board’s report to the government itself notes: “Given the importance of the oil and gas sector to Alberta’s economy, the province will be disproportionately impacted by the policies in the ERP.” All of this prompts the question: why haven’t these economic and fiscal data that accompanied the Conference Board’s report been fully released by the Alberta government? The numbers establish the case that Premier Danielle Smith and her government have been making. Namely, the federal Emissions Reduction Plan in general and the oil and gas emissions cap in particular represent a serious threat to Alberta’s economy and the government’s own budget. In fact, it could have even bigger consequences than the National Energy Program. The premier, therefore, should release the full, detailed economic and fiscal data tables from the Conference Board report and let the Alberta Next Panel use the information to guide its consultations with Albertans in developing realistic policies to assert the province’s sovereignty within a united Canada. In addition, the special negotiating team, which is representing Alberta in discussions with the federal government, should demand that the Emissions Reduction Plan be abandoned as an irrevocable condition for signing any “Alberta Accord” with Ottawa. Alberta’s leaders and citizens deserve to have the full picture before decisions of this magnitude are made. The economic and fiscal losses outlined in the partial data are not minor adjustments—they represent a structural hit to Alberta’s prosperity, public finances, and ability to invest in its own future. If Ottawa is intent on pursuing policies with consequences greater than the National Energy Program, then Alberta must be equally intent on defending itself with facts, transparency, and unity. Releasing the full economic and fiscal data that forms the basis for the Conference Board report isn’t just a matter of political advantage, it’s a matter of democratic accountability. Albertans can only meet the challenge ahead if they’re given the truth about its scale.