How much LNG would Canada need to be a real player on the global market?

Billions in revenue have been lost over the years in Canada, with substantial forfeited income to government coffers. Recent validation of this hostage-like position has been on full display, including episodes of negative prices for Western Canadian natural gas—moments when producers must pay to have their gas taken away as if it were a waste product. The “Ladder of Ambition” Canada’s level of natural gas market concentration sits at the bottom rung of what I call the “Ladder of Ambition.” At that base level, suppliers are price takers with no meaningful influence on the market. For many years, and especially since 2012, Canada has occupied that bottom rung. But the emergence of LNG exports provides a path upward. The Asia-Pacific market—led by China, Japan, South Korea, India, and Taiwan—offers a far more diversified buyer base than North America’s binary structure. Each cargo leaving British Columbia shifts Canada’s dependence away from a constrained continental system and distributes it across a broader set of counterparties. Building scale The initial steps to rectify this have been small but meaningful. LNG Canada’s Phase 1 terminal, at roughly 14 mtpa, marks the nation’s entry into global LNG markets. Woodfibre LNG and Cedar LNG will add scale, potentially lifting combined capacity toward 20 million tonnes annually. Even at that level, Canada remains a modest player, but it could begin to enter the competitive space where presence carries weight. The next jumps—LNG Canada Phase 2 and the newly prioritized Ksi Lisims facility—bring the country closer to the goal Carney mentioned at ASEAN. Approaching 50 million tonnes per year places Canada among suppliers whose volumes actually matter. Influence in energy markets often arises not from dominance but from having sufficient scale to control margins: The ability to negotiate contract terms, redirect cargoes when necessary, or provide buyers with alternatives when geopolitical tensions rise elsewhere. The domestic payoff To date, Canada’s lack of export options has had real consequences at home. With nearly half of production flowing to the U.S., we remain exposed to shifting political climates. Tariff threats, regulatory tightening, or commercial disputes immediately reverberate through the economy. Over time, this discourages investment and limits national leverage. Diversified LNG trade does not eliminate these risks, but it cushions them. LNG development is not without challenges. Long-term capital, Indigenous partnerships, regulatory coherence, and global competition all matter. Ambition must be matched with disciplined execution. A strategic choice Realism should not become resignation. For years, Canada’s natural gas sector has been constrained not by geology but by market structure. The country has the reserves, technical capability, and foundational infrastructure. What we have lacked is access to a diverse set of buyers to stabilize economics and enhance our posture in global energy trade. That is the significance of the emerging Pacific corridor. The question is not whether Canada should pursue LNG, but how far it must go to achieve meaningful agency in the market. Around 50 million tonnes per year—the scale Carney referenced in Asia and the scale implied by current projects in the queue—is sufficient to reduce overreliance on continental markets and establish Canada as a credible supplier in the Asia-Pacific. Below that, the country remains where it has been: a major resource producer with limited influence over its pricing environment. Enough to matter Canada does not need to dominate global LNG. It simply needs to participate on terms that maximize the value of its resources and the strategic interests of its economy. In a deglobalizing world marked by economic coercion and a return to mercantilism, optionality is the currency of modern trade. With the right combination of infrastructure, partnerships, and policy coherence, Canada can move from responding to concentrated market forces to having a meaningful role in shaping them. In that sense, the question “How much LNG is enough?” is not about volume for its own sake. Raising energy ambition is about resilience, diversification, and the ability to stand on more than one economic leg. At roughly 50 million tonnes per year, Canada begins that transition and ends the era of being hostage to market discounts. Double that, and the ambition evolves into a serious negotiator on the global stage.