How much have reopening policies truly affected behaviour during the late-stages of the COVID-19 pandemic?
Given the results of this study from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the answer is probably not much.
Statewide Reopening During Mass Vaccination: Evidence on Mobility, Public Health and Economic Activity from Texas provides the first empirical evidence examining 1) the claims made by public health officials that an early reopening in Texas would lead to a resurgence of COVID-19, and 2) assertions by Texas politicians that the reopening would generate short-run employment growth.
Texas Governor Greg Abott lifted the mask mandate and opened the state up with no restrictions on March 2, 2021.
This was in the midst of a mass vaccination campaign in the United States which saw the country distribute approximately 250 million doses of COVID-19 vaccinations during the first four months of 2021. This resulted in the complete vaccination of nearly 45 percent of the adult population during that time.
Using various methods such as tracking smartphone data and examining daily data on new COVID-19 cases from the New York Times, the authors of the study found:
- No evidence that the Texas reopening led to substantial changes in social mobility, including foot traffic at a wide set of business establishments in Texas.
- No evidence that the Texas reopening affected the rate of new COVID-19 cases during the five weeks following the reopening.
- No evidence that the Texas reopening order impacted short-run employment.
Further, they write:
“Our null results persist across more urbanized and less urbanized counties, as well as across counties that supported Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election…Together, our null findings underscore the limits of late-pandemic era COVID-19 reopening policies to alter private behavior.”
