The federal government has set some ambitious emissions targets. Their climate plan includes a reduction of 213 megatonnes (MT) of greenhouse gas emissions, or 30 percent of 2018 nationwide GHGs, by 2030.
The plan projects GHGs from transportation to fall by 35 MT from 186 MT in 2018 to 151 MT by 2030.
But what will it take to reach these lofty goals? Nothing short of a complete transformation of our transportation sector.
Practically speaking, this will require a 41 percent reduction in average GHGs per passenger vehicle over the next decade, a new report from the C.D. Howe Institute finds.
It highlights that this will require that zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) account for approximately 30 percent of the total vehicle stock in the country. To achieve this ratio, 70 to 75 percent of sales in Canada’s passenger vehicle market will need to be ZEVs by 2030.
Currently, ZEVs accounted for 3.5 percent of sales in Canada in 2020.
The authors outline that there will also need to be an increase in the blending of biofuels, as well as a 2.5 percent annual improvement in the efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles.
Passenger vehicles are not the only ones that will be affected, either:
“The federal plan’s projected reductions would also require a roughly 18 percent reduction in the average emission intensity of freight trucks by 2030. Such a reduction will require either improvements in vehicle efficiency, electrification or adaptation of hydrogen fuel cell technology for freight transport, as well as biofuel blending.”
