The Week in Polling: Most Canadians think Trump would break a trade deal; Americans say the UN does a poor job; Canadians expect economic decline into 2026

Analysis

Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C., May 6, 2025. Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press.

This is The Week in Polling, your Saturday dose of interesting numbers from top pollsters in Canada and around the world, curated by The Hub. Here’s what we’re looking at this week.

Nearly two-thirds of Canadians think Trump would break any new trade deal

Nearly two-thirds of Canadians anticipate that if Canada were to ink a new trade deal with the United States, it would be broken by President Donald Trump.

Pollara, who conducted the survey, also found that federal Liberal voters overwhelmingly assume Trump would break the agreement, at 74 percent. Meanwhile, only 21 percent say he would respect it. Federal Conservative voters are split, with 51 percent saying Trump would break the deal and 41 percent saying he would respect it.

These findings align with a poll we mentioned in last week’s edition, which found that six out of 10 Canadians say they can never trust Americans the same way again.

U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said earlier this month that Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs and America First rhetoric has not been “constructive” in advancing a new trade and security agreement. Speaking at a Halifax Chamber of Commerce luncheon, Hoekstra criticized the use of the Liberal campaign slogan “elbows up” by Canadian politicians and the public, calling it “anti-American.” Hokestra also stated that the Trump administration had hoped to sign a “much bigger” trade agreement with Canada than CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement), though anti-American sentiment has slowed that down.

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