Welcome to Need to Know, The Hub’s twice-weekly roundup of expert insights into the biggest economic stories, political news, and policy developments Hub readers need to be keeping their eyes on.
The Boomers won Carney the election, and it’s the Boomers keeping him afloat so far
By Alexander Brown, director of the National Citizens Coalition, a contributor to Project Ontario, and host of a weekly show on Juno News
Happy with Mark Carney’s start? Happy with this moment of “meet the new Liberals, who look a whole lot like the old Liberals”? If so, survey data says you’re likely to be over 55. Go one step further, and take away over-65 support in Leger’s latest approval data, and that support plummets. This generational divide suggests Carney’s leadership continues to reverse traditional Canadian voting patterns, where younger voters typically lean Left. Were it not for the Boomers, in other words, the polls would be essentially tied between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
Canada’s new minority government may well have started off saying some of the right things, but the massive divide it governs over makes Carney’s electoral coalition fragile, as older Liberal and NDP voters alone will not be able to secure a firm mandate going forward.
If the Liberals have actual designs on broadening their appeal, and undoing matters of generational labour uncertainty, Carney must address lived realities of the non-Trump variety—economic anxieties, urgent fixes to immigration, housing starts and promises that have already cratered, a crack-down on rising crime and chaos, and a lack of health care and family doctors—to counter perceptions of being out-of-touch and gerontocratic, or they risk quickly ceding ground to the Conservatives’ change-driven messaging.
But the bigger risk, of course, is not to political fortunes, but to those who can’t afford for the next 10 years to look like the last 10 years.
With those elbows now firmly down—tariff negotiations are proving to be anything but the quick fix that was promised, and “urgent national projects” are still yet to be greenlit—working and younger Canadians have every right to start wondering if they’ve been hoodwinked by the Liberals and their elders.
For the sake of the Canadian dream, won’t somebody please think of the children?
Drop the gloves: The fight is on in Alberta
By Falice Chin, The Hub’s Alberta senior producer
Alberta is having a political cage match, and the prize is the future of Confederation itself. In one corner, Mitch Sylvestre and the Alberta Prosperity Project are pushing for a referendum to make Alberta a sovereign country. In the other, former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk—a familiar face from the twilight of the PC era—is racing to collect 294,000 signatures just to say they want to calm down and carry on as Canadians.
It’s a battle of petitions, egos, and who can clip more pens to more clipboards before the clock runs out. Thanks to Bill 54, passed earlier this year by Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP government, Sylvestre would only need just over 177,000 signatures and have a full 120 days to gather them. But Lukaszuk filed his petition first under the tougher, older rules, hoping to block Sylvestre’s effort until the “Forever Canadian” campaign wraps.
Meanwhile, Sylvestre’s proposed referendum question—“Do you agree that the Province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada?”—has been punted to the courts by Alberta’s chief electoral officer for constitutional review. That move drew rebukes from Smith and Justice Minister Mickey Amery, who accused the officer of slapping “unnecessary red tape” on a process they’d just finished streamlining.
Lukaszuk’s petition doesn’t trigger a full-blown constitutional referendum. It simply asks Alberta to adopt a policy of staying in Canada. No fireworks, just fine print. He’s backed by a quiet coalition of retired journalists and cross-partisan moderates. Sylvestre’s side draws energy from rural Albertans, populist frustration, and polling data showing a significant portion of UCP voters may consider the idea.
On the ground, the two camps are already clashing, including in Edmonton, where “Alberta Sovereignty Now” banner-holders have faced off with Lukaszuk’s clipboard brigade. First Nations leaders and protesters, too, have repeatedly asserted that the province’s sovereignty is predicated on treaties signed before Alberta’s creation.
And then there are the duelling roadshows. Smith’s government is crisscrossing the province with the “Alberta Next” panel—a sovereignty-flavoured consultation tour. NDP leader Naheed Nenshi has launched a rival roadshow of his own. The “Better Together” campaign is pitched as a less “divisive” conversation about Alberta’s future.
One province. Two petitions. Two political roadshows. Nearly 500,000 signatures in play. All in a jurisdiction of five million.
And they say summer is supposed to be quiet.
Ding ding.
28Traditional Russian wooden dolls called Matryoshka depicting Russian President Vladimir Putin, front left, and US President-elect Donald Trump, front right, are displayed for sale at a souvenir shop in St. Petersburg, Russia, Monday, Jan. 20, 2025. Dmitri Lovetsky/AP Photo.
Tick-tock: Putin is on Trump’s clock—and time is running out
By Ian Garner, assistant professor of totalitarian studies at the Pilecki Institute in Warsaw
Donald Trump’s Ukraine peace deadline ultimatum, issued to Russian President Vladimir Putin, is about to expire this Friday. For the first six months of his presidency, Trump seemed about to cut a deal over Ukraine with a strongman leader he saw as a kindred spirit. Almost two weeks ago, the American president, apparently exhausted with Putin’s indifferent and even baiting responses to his entreaties and enticements, performed one of his trademark about-faces.
Trump demanded that the man in the Kremlin would have to make serious efforts for peace by the end of this week. Fail to yield, and Russia’s creaking war economy would face hefty sanctions. Secondary sanctions on countries that trade with Russia—China, India, and Turkey might be in the firing line—could bring Moscow to heel and rock global oil and gas prices. Moscow’s economy, which is already struggling to keep its war machine running, would crater.
But those outcomes rest on a big if: will Trump follow through? All the signs point to the answer being a firm no.
The usually irascible president has kept quiet over the issue since issuing his threat. What sanctions might be imposed remain unclear. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, has even flown to Moscow for a cordial discussion with Putin. Moscow’s military marches on in Ukraine. Few global political and trade leaders seem to believe Trump will keep his word and force Putin down—but if the unpredictable president applies big sanctions, the Kremlin might yet face an economic shock that could seriously dent its war aims.
